WTI sitting at 87 and Brent at 91 - all eyes and ears on are the US/Iran potential peace deal - that has dominated the trading circles and led to a big drop off from over $100 to high 80s - on a peace deal - a drop to 81.29 and potentially 76.26 seem in the cards for WTI. The demand will be the driving force for the rest of the year. Questions remain on how much demand destruction and how much supply will come back (and more importantly how quick). With peace - a drop to 81.29 is certain and likely to 76.26. Without peace - 90.82 is the anchor.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-30 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have slipped recently, with WTI at $87 and Brent at $91, largely influenced by expectations of a US-Iran peace deal. A potential agreement could push WTI down to $81.29, or even $76.26, while a lack of peace might stabilize prices around $90.82. Demand remains the pivotal factor, with concerns over demand destruction and supply recovery shadowing the market. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, as they could dramatically shift sentiment and price trajectories in the near term.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$92.05
$1.66
WTI:
$87.36
$1.54
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,924
Weekly Change:
18,295
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$87.36
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $96.27
MA(20): $98.51
Current Price is 87.36, 9 day MA 96.27, 20 day MA 98.51
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.7005
Signal: 0.2379
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 37.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 37.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 235,145
Avg (20d): 262,692
Ratio: 0.9
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 4.37
%D: 5.52
Stochastic %K: 4.37, %D: 5.52. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.0
+DI: 15.5
-DI: 27.89
ADX: 18.0 (+DI: 15.5, -DI: 27.89). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -95.63
Williams %R: -95.63 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 110.6
Middle: 98.51
Lower: 86.43
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 110.6, Middle: 98.51, Lower: 86.43
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13715.0 | 13702.0 | 13392.0 | 12900.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5212.0 | 6016.0 | 6089.0 | 6779.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4440.0 | 5604.0 | 3507.0 | 4480.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16971.0 | 16319.0 | 16490.0 | 16525.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 772.0 | 412.0 | 2582.0 | 2298.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 441686.0 | 445013.0 | 443158.0 | 451569.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1584032.0 | 1601408.0 | 1623569.0 | 1618182.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 211591.0 | 214163.0 | 225522.0 | 222665.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 100799.0 | 102906.0 | 104132.0 | 109784.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $92.05, change $-1.66. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $87.36, change $-1.54. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$92.05
1.66
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$87.36
1.54
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Key economic growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown includes:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by:
- Brazil
- Canada
- US
- Argentina
In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, with similar growth expected in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, with rates on the USGC-to-Europe route up by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates were up by 17%, m-o-m, on the Middle East-to-East route.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trade flow developments include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
- India’s crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline, m-o-m.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb, 14.4 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, the demand for DoC crude is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, necessitating a strategic outlook for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-26
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: 845
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-26
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,003,795 contracts (+845)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,924 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -18,295 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 366,141 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -561,614 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
52
Last Updated:
2026-05-30 23:52:51
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.91
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-0.41%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.3%)
SP500
7580.06
Daily:
16.43 (0.22%)
Weekly:
106.59 (1.43%)
VIX
15.32
Daily:
-0.42 (-2.67%)
Weekly:
-1.27 (-7.66%)
GOLD
4560.5
Daily:
61.2 (1.36%)
Weekly:
39.5 (0.87%)
COPPER
6.36
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.57%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.28%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$87.36
Closest Support:
$85.47
2.16% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$91.97
5.28% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$74.97
0.236
$85.47
Support
0.382
$91.97
Resistance
0.5
$97.23
0.618
$102.48
0.786
$109.95
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$131.59
1.618
$146.99
2.0
$163.99
2.618
$191.5
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$87.36
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-30 23:52:53
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | $87.23 | $80.08 | $94.38 |
| 2026-05-31 | $87.03 | $79.89 | $94.18 |
| 2026-06-01 | $86.45 | $79.3 | $93.6 |
| 2026-06-02 | $86.5 | $79.35 | $93.65 |
| 2026-06-03 | $86.37 | $79.22 | $93.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-05-30), reaching $87.23.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-30 and 2026-06-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing crude oil price movements. The bullish sentiment from managed money positions indicates potential upward price pressure, yet the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.600.
Key price movements include:
- Brent crude at $64.73 and WTI at $60.26, with a spread of $4.47.
- Expect short-term resistance around $65 for Brent and $61 for WTI.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should focus on current supply-demand fundamentals as global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.4 mb/d in 2026. The decline in refining margins could impact profitability, particularly with seasonal pressures and maintenance activities.
- Crude oil production from OPEC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, indicating potential supply tightness.
- Inventory levels are pivotal; OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, suggesting a need for strategic hedging against price fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and inventory levels. The recent increase in crude imports and fluctuations in product exports suggest a complex supply landscape.
Key considerations include:
- US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with historical averages, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d.
- With declining refining margins, consumers may face higher costs for refined products.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture influenced by various factors. The bearish sentiment is underscored by a sentiment score of -0.600, while positioning data indicates a bullish but weakening outlook among managed money traders.
Key driving factors include:
- Stable global economic growth forecasts at around 3.1%, providing a backdrop for steady oil demand.
- Declining refining margins and rising inventories signal potential headwinds for prices.
- Geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's production adjustments could further influence market dynamics.