WTI sitting at 87 and Brent at 91 - all eyes and ears on are the US/Iran potential peace deal - that has dominated the trading circles and led to a big drop off from over $100 to high 80s - on a peace deal - a drop to 81.29 and potentially 76.26 seem in the cards for WTI. The demand will be the driving force for the rest of the year. Questions remain on how much demand destruction and how much supply will come back (and more importantly how quick). With peace - a drop to 81.29 is certain and likely to 76.26. Without peace - 90.82 is the anchor.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-31 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices are experiencing notable fluctuations, with WTI sitting at $87 and Brent at $91 amid speculations of a potential US-Iran peace deal. This uncertainty has driven prices down from over $100, with projections suggesting a possible drop to $81.29 and even $76.26 if the deal materializes. Demand remains the key driver, but questions linger regarding demand destruction and supply recovery. Market sentiment leans bearish with a cautious eye on geopolitical developments, making it crucial for traders to stay informed.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$92.05
$1.66
WTI:
$87.36
$1.54
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,924
Weekly Change:
18,295
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$89.5
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $94.15
MA(20): $97.89
Current Price is 89.5, 9 day MA 94.15, 20 day MA 97.89
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -2.0131
Signal: -0.2123
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.18
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.18 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 19,911
Avg (20d): 250,252
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 13.62
%D: 8.67
Stochastic %K: 13.62, %D: 8.67. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.45
+DI: 16.39
-DI: 26.94
ADX: 18.45 (+DI: 16.39, -DI: 26.94). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -86.38
Williams %R: -86.38 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 110.48
Middle: 97.89
Lower: 85.31
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 110.48, Middle: 97.89, Lower: 85.31
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13715.0 | 13702.0 | 13392.0 | 12900.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5212.0 | 6016.0 | 6089.0 | 6779.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4440.0 | 5604.0 | 3507.0 | 4480.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16971.0 | 16319.0 | 16490.0 | 16525.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 772.0 | 412.0 | 2582.0 | 2298.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 441686.0 | 445013.0 | 443158.0 | 451569.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1584032.0 | 1601408.0 | 1623569.0 | 1618182.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 211591.0 | 214163.0 | 225522.0 | 222665.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 100799.0 | 102906.0 | 104132.0 | 109784.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $92.05, change $-1.66. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $87.36, change $-1.54. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$92.05
1.66
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$87.36
1.54
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
- US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
- China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
- India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
- Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to shape the global economic landscape.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
- In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
Key demand drivers include economic recovery and population growth, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- Key growth drivers include Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
- In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.
- Recent DoC crude production trends indicate a decrease of 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
- In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
- In Singapore, the decline was driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- VLCC spot freight rates rose significantly, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased amid weather disruptions, with USGC-to-Europe rates up by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- In Japan, crude imports surged, averaging just under 3 mb/d in December.
- China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
- India’s crude imports remained elevated, averaging 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb, which is 14.4 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to align with the projected demand growth.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-26
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: 845
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-26
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,003,795 contracts (+845)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,924 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -18,295 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 366,141 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -561,614 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
32
Last Updated:
2026-05-31 23:52:56
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.07
Daily:
0.16 (0.17%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-0.1%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.3%)
SP500
7580.06
Daily:
16.43 (0.22%)
Weekly:
106.59 (1.43%)
VIX
15.32
Daily:
-0.42 (-2.67%)
Weekly:
-1.27 (-7.66%)
GOLD
4543.4
Daily:
-17.1 (-0.37%)
Weekly:
43.0 (0.96%)
COPPER
6.44
Daily:
0.09 (1.34%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.31%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$89.5
Closest Support:
$86.82
2.99% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$93.06
3.98% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$76.73
0.236
$86.82
Support
0.382
$93.06
Resistance
0.5
$98.11
0.618
$103.15
0.786
$110.33
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$131.11
1.618
$145.9
2.0
$162.23
2.618
$188.65
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$87.36
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-31 23:52:58
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | $87.23 | $80.08 | $94.38 |
| 2026-05-31 | $87.03 | $79.88 | $94.18 |
| 2026-06-01 | $86.44 | $79.3 | $93.59 |
| 2026-06-02 | $86.49 | $79.35 | $93.64 |
| 2026-06-03 | $86.37 | $79.22 | $93.51 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-05-30), reaching $87.23.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-30 and 2026-06-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the market, with the OPEC Reference Basket increasing to an average of $62.31/b. The Brent-WTI spread has also widened to $4.47/b, suggesting strong demand dynamics favoring Brent over WTI.
Traders should monitor the support levels around $60.00/b for WTI and $62.00/b for Brent, while potential resistance could be seen at $64.00/b for Brent. The bullish positioning of hedge funds indicates an opportunity for short-term gains, but the weakening sentiment among Managed Money traders could signal volatility ahead.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the forecast for global oil demand remaining stable at 1.4 mb/d growth for 2026, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations. The inventory levels are currently above the five-year average, which could affect market pricing if not managed properly.
The recent decrease in production among OPEC members indicates a tightening market, which may support prices. Producers should evaluate their production planning in light of these dynamics and consider the implications of geopolitical factors that may disrupt supply chains.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI averaging $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The widening Brent-WTI spread may impact procurement strategies, particularly for refineries reliant on heavy crude.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and inventory levels should be closely monitored, as they pose risks to supply reliability. It may be prudent to consider hedging options to lock in favorable pricing amidst these fluctuations.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bullish sentiment driven by strong demand forecasts and tightening supply dynamics. Key factors include stable global economic growth at 3.1% and increasing non-DoC liquids production.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the CFTC positioning, particularly the shift in Managed Money net positions, which indicates potential market reversals. The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, but the weakening positions among speculators may warrant caution for future outlooks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.