WTI sitting at 87 and Brent at 91 - all eyes and ears on are the US/Iran potential peace deal - that has dominated the trading circles and led to a big drop off from over $100 to high 80s - on a peace deal - a drop to 81.29 and potentially 76.26 seem in the cards for WTI. The demand will be the driving force for the rest of the year. Questions remain on how much demand destruction and how much supply will come back (and more importantly how quick). With peace - a drop to 81.29 is certain and likely to 76.26. Without peace - 90.82 is the anchor.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-01 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices are currently in a tug-of-war, with WTI at $87 and Brent at $91. The recent US-Iran peace deal prospects have sent prices tumbling from over $100, with potential dips to $81.29 and even $76.26 if peace holds. Demand remains the key driver, raising concerns over potential demand destruction and recovery speed of supply. As geopolitical tensions fluctuate, keep an eye on the $90.82 resistance; it could be a volatile ride ahead! Remember, in trading, just like in life, it's all about timing and a dash of luck!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$92.05
$1.66
WTI:
$87.36
$1.54
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,924
Weekly Change:
18,295
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$91.53
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $94.37
MA(20): $97.99
Current Price is 91.53, 9 day MA 94.37, 20 day MA 97.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.8511
Signal: -0.1799
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.97
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 14,463
Avg (20d): 251,612
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 22.4
%D: 11.59
Stochastic %K: 22.4, %D: 11.59. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.89
+DI: 18.77
-DI: 26.17
ADX: 17.89 (+DI: 18.77, -DI: 26.17). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -77.6
Williams %R: -77.6 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 110.34
Middle: 97.99
Lower: 85.65
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 110.34, Middle: 97.99, Lower: 85.65
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13715.0 | 13702.0 | 13392.0 | 12900.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5212.0 | 6016.0 | 6089.0 | 6779.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4440.0 | 5604.0 | 3507.0 | 4480.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16971.0 | 16319.0 | 16490.0 | 16525.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 772.0 | 412.0 | 2582.0 | 2298.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 441686.0 | 445013.0 | 443158.0 | 451569.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1584032.0 | 1601408.0 | 1623569.0 | 1618182.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 211591.0 | 214163.0 | 225522.0 | 222665.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 100799.0 | 102906.0 | 104132.0 | 109784.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $92.05, change $-1.66. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $87.36, change $-1.54. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$92.05
1.66
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$87.36
1.54
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable, with a projected growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan: Constant at 0.9% for both years.
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years.
- India: Forecasted at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil: Remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
- Russia: Forecasts hold at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to shape the economic landscape, influencing oil demand and supply dynamics.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD: Expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d.
- Non-OECD: Forecasted to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD at about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, averaging about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d in January.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures.
- US Gulf Coast: Losses were noted from the bottom section of the barrel, with increased heavy crude supplies impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, particularly gasoline and fuel oil.
- Singapore: Declines were driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions and demand from European refiners.
- Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates increased by 17%, m-o-m, on Middle East-to-East routes.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to 4.2 mb/d.
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan.
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight m-o-m decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The 2027 demand for DoC crude is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting similar growth.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions moving forward to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-26
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: 845
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-26
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,003,795 contracts (+845)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,924 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -18,295 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 366,141 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -561,614 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
32
Last Updated:
2026-06-01 23:53:13
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.19
Daily:
0.28 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.02%)
US_10Y
4.47
Daily:
0.02 (0.49%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.4%)
SP500
7599.96
Daily:
19.9 (0.26%)
Weekly:
80.84 (1.08%)
VIX
16.05
Daily:
0.73 (4.77%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-5.64%)
GOLD
4526.0
Daily:
-34.5 (-0.76%)
Weekly:
25.6 (0.57%)
COPPER
6.56
Daily:
0.2 (3.21%)
Weekly:
0.2 (3.18%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$91.53
Closest Support:
$86.82
5.15% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$93.06
1.67% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$76.73
0.236
$86.82
Support
0.382
$93.06
Resistance
0.5
$98.11
0.618
$103.15
0.786
$110.33
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$131.11
1.618
$145.9
2.0
$162.23
2.618
$188.65
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$92.16
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-01 23:53:15
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.45%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | $91.74 | $84.43 | $99.05 |
| 2026-06-03 | $90.79 | $83.48 | $98.09 |
| 2026-06-04 | $90.98 | $83.67 | $98.29 |
| 2026-06-05 | $90.89 | $83.58 | $98.19 |
| 2026-06-06 | $91.38 | $84.07 | $98.68 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.45% for the next trading day (2026-06-02), reaching $91.74.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-02 and 2026-06-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a slight upward trend, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $62.31/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The Brent-WTI spread has widened, indicating potential volatility due to differing supply dynamics. The overall market sentiment is currently bearish with a sentiment score of -0.700, suggesting caution in the short term.
Traders should monitor the managed money positioning, which has seen a decrease in net long positions, signaling potential weakening bullish momentum. Key support levels to watch include recent lows, while resistance may be found around the $65 mark. The convergence of these indicators suggests short-term opportunities could arise from price retracements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of current supply-demand dynamics. With global oil demand forecasted to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, and 0.6 mb/d growth in non-DoC liquids production, planning for production adjustments is crucial. The decline in crude oil inventories by 2.1 mb indicates a tightening market, which may influence pricing strategies.
Given the bearish sentiment in the market, hedging strategies should be reassessed to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Additionally, the increase in 4.2 mb/d crude exports from the US signals a competitive landscape that producers must navigate.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with WTI and Brent prices showing recent increases. The $60.26/b average for WTI suggests that procurement strategies may need adjustments to account for rising costs.
Additionally, with geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating inventories, there are supply reliability risks to consider. Increased crude imports by countries like China and Japan highlight the competitive nature of global supply, which could impact procurement strategies in the coming months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and fundamental factors. The global economic growth forecast remains stable, yet declining refining margins and increased inventories suggest potential headwinds for crude prices.
The strong demand growth from non-OECD countries contrasts with the bearish positioning of managed money, indicating a complex market landscape. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in sentiment and positioning that could signal a change in market direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.