WTI sitting at 87 and Brent at 91 - all eyes and ears on are the US/Iran potential peace deal - that has dominated the trading circles and led to a big drop off from over $100 to high 80s - on a peace deal - a drop to 81.29 and potentially 76.26 seem in the cards for WTI. The demand will be the driving force for the rest of the year. Questions remain on how much demand destruction and how much supply will come back (and more importantly how quick). With peace - a drop to 81.29 is certain and likely to 76.26. Without peace - 90.82 is the anchor. Monday traded through and up to $93 - so the anchors will be 94.35 to 90.82 as the bull bear lines.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-02 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are currently in a state of flux, with WTI at $87 and Brent at $91, influenced heavily by the potential U.S.-Iran peace deal. This development has caused a significant price drop from over $100, with predictions suggesting a potential decline to $81.29 or even $76.26 if peace is achieved. Conversely, without a deal, prices could stabilize around $90.82. Demand remains the key focus, as traders question how much demand destruction will occur and how quickly supply will rebound. Keep an eye on these dynamics!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$92.02
$0.03
WTI:
$92.16
$4.8
Spread:
$-0.14
(WTI premium of $0.14)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,924
Weekly Change:
18,295
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$94.66
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $92.98
MA(20): $97.44
Current Price is 94.66, 9 day MA 92.98, 20 day MA 97.44
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.6596
Signal: -0.4678
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 48.01
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 48.01 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 23,781
Avg (20d): 251,038
Ratio: 0.09
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 35.94
%D: 21.81
Stochastic %K: 35.94, %D: 21.81. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.69
+DI: 21.3
-DI: 24.37
ADX: 16.69 (+DI: 21.3, -DI: 24.37). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -64.06
Williams %R: -64.06 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 109.17
Middle: 97.44
Lower: 85.71
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 109.17, Middle: 97.44, Lower: 85.71
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13715.0 | 13702.0 | 13392.0 | 12900.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5212.0 | 6016.0 | 6089.0 | 6779.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4440.0 | 5604.0 | 3507.0 | 4480.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16971.0 | 16319.0 | 16490.0 | 16525.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 772.0 | 412.0 | 2582.0 | 2298.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 441686.0 | 445013.0 | 443158.0 | 451569.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1584032.0 | 1601408.0 | 1623569.0 | 1618182.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 211591.0 | 214163.0 | 225522.0 | 222665.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 100799.0 | 102906.0 | 104132.0 | 109784.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $92.02, change $-0.03. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $92.16, change $+4.8. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-0.14 (WTI premium of $0.14). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$92.02
0.03
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$92.16
4.8
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-0.14
WTI premium of $0.14
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
- US: 2.2% for 2026 (up slightly), 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to shape the economic landscape, influencing oil demand and supply dynamics.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures.
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- VLCC rates: Up by 64%, y-o-y, reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade.
- Suezmax rates: Up by 12%, m-o-m, more than double year-ago levels.
- Aframax rates: Increased by 10%, m-o-m, to a 10-year high for the month.
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed a strong performance, led by East of Suez, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, amid higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined, m-o-m, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan.
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China: Crude imports surged to a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks: 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged at 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, with world demand for 2026 at 106.5 mb/d and non-DoC supply at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the importance of strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-26
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: 845
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-26
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,003,795 contracts (+845)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,924 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -18,295 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 366,141 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -561,614 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
36
Last Updated:
2026-06-02 23:53:25
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.24
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.03%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.45%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.58%)
SP500
7609.78
Daily:
9.82 (0.13%)
Weekly:
89.42 (1.19%)
VIX
15.77
Daily:
-0.28 (-1.74%)
Weekly:
-0.52 (-3.19%)
GOLD
4512.1
Daily:
36.9 (0.82%)
Weekly:
64.6 (1.45%)
COPPER
6.67
Daily:
0.14 (2.18%)
Weekly:
0.36 (5.73%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$94.66
Closest Support:
$93.06
1.69% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$98.11
3.64% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$76.73
0.236
$86.82
0.382
$93.06
Support
0.5
$98.11
Resistance
0.618
$103.15
0.786
$110.33
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$131.11
1.618
$145.9
2.0
$162.23
2.618
$188.65
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$93.76
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-02 23:53:27
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | $92.72 | $85.39 | $100.04 |
| 2026-06-04 | $92.76 | $85.43 | $100.08 |
| 2026-06-05 | $92.7 | $85.37 | $100.03 |
| 2026-06-06 | $93.19 | $85.86 | $100.51 |
| 2026-06-07 | $93.34 | $86.02 | $100.67 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.11% for the next trading day (2026-06-03), reaching $92.72.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-03 and 2026-06-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.700. The $64.73 average for ICE Brent and $60.26 for NYMEX WTI suggest potential upward price movement. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.47, reflecting differences in supply/demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities.
With the forward curves in backwardation and a bullish but weakening positioning among managed money, traders should watch for potential volatility and consider Fibonacci levels for support at $60.00 and resistance near $65.00.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current production environment, with stable global oil demand growth at 1.4 mb/d, presents a favorable backdrop for production planning. However, the decline in DoC crude production by 439 tb/d may impact supply dynamics, necessitating effective hedging strategies to mitigate price fluctuations.
Inventory levels show a rise in OECD commercial stocks, which could influence market prices. Producers should remain agile in their operations to respond to shifting market sentiments, particularly as the $62.31 average OPEC Reference Basket price indicates potential for further price adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude prices hover around $60.26 for WTI and $64.73 for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The geopolitical uncertainties and rising inventory levels could affect supply reliability, necessitating strategic procurement plans.
Given the decline in product exports from the US, consumers may need to consider hedging strategies to manage costs effectively. Monitoring the $4.47 Brent-WTI spread will also be crucial for refining margins and operational costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, driven by robust physical market fundamentals and a stable global demand outlook. The increase in speculative positions among managed money indicates potential upward price pressures, while the decline in DoC production adds complexity to supply forecasts.
Key driving factors include strong refining margins impacted by seasonal demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting tanker rates. Analysts should be vigilant for shifts in sentiment and positioning, as the market appears poised for potential volatility in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.