After exiting last week on hopes of peace - the weekend and beginning of the week has brought doubt to the peace prospects taking us from the $87 WTI level to over $96 in the last 4 trading sessions. Physical barrels are trading much higher and are likely going to drive prices up and “pull” the price up to those levels.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-03 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices surged from $87 to over $96 in recent sessions, fueled by rising physical barrel prices and renewed doubts about Middle East peace. While a ceasefire was anticipated, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have led to market uncertainty. Low U.S. diesel inventories add further pressure on prices. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels closely, as they remain pivotal in shaping price trajectories. Remember, in the energy market, it's like riding a rollercoaster—hold on tight!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$96.0
$1.02
WTI:
$93.76
$1.6
Spread:
$2.24
(Brent premium of $2.24)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,924
Weekly Change:
18,295
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$95.23
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $92.55
MA(20): $97.04
Current Price is 95.23, 9 day MA 92.55, 20 day MA 97.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.5399
Signal: -0.6937
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 48.83
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 48.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,248
Avg (20d): 250,311
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 38.41
%D: 31.86
Stochastic %K: 38.41, %D: 31.86. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.07
+DI: 21.61
-DI: 23.74
ADX: 16.07 (+DI: 21.61, -DI: 23.74). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -61.59
Williams %R: -61.59 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 108.63
Middle: 97.04
Lower: 85.45
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 108.63, Middle: 97.04, Lower: 85.45
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13707.0 | 13715.0 | 13401.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6397.0 | 5212.0 | 6351.0 | 6601.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5874.0 | 4440.0 | 4301.0 | 3627.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16881.0 | 16971.0 | 16328.0 | 16929.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 523.0 | 772.0 | 2050.0 | 2973.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 433712.0 | 441686.0 | 440363.0 | 450395.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1573470.0 | 1584032.0 | 1623724.0 | 1631089.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214955.0 | 211591.0 | 223081.0 | 226020.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102301.0 | 100799.0 | 103408.0 | 113951.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $96.0, change $+1.02. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $93.76, change $+1.6. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.24 (Brent premium of $2.24). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$96.0
1.02
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$93.76
1.6
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.24
Brent premium of $2.24
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
• In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract saw a rise of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
• The Brent-WTI spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation, indicating robust physical market fundamentals.
• Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds increasing their net long positions significantly.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract saw a rise of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
• The Brent-WTI spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation, indicating robust physical market fundamentals.
• Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds increasing their net long positions significantly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
• Global GDP growth is forecasted at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
• The US economic growth forecast is revised slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both years, while Japan's growth is projected at 0.9%.
• China’s growth forecast remains at 4.5% for both years, and India is expected to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
• Brazil's economic growth is forecast at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is expected to be 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
• Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to impact global economic dynamics.
• The US economic growth forecast is revised slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both years, while Japan's growth is projected at 0.9%.
• China’s growth forecast remains at 4.5% for both years, and India is expected to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
• Brazil's economic growth is forecast at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is expected to be 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
• Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to impact global economic dynamics.
World Oil Demand Trends
• Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with OECD demand increasing by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD at approximately 1.2 mb/d.
• The demand distribution indicates a stronger growth trajectory in non-OECD regions, driven by emerging economies.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and increased industrial activity, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
• In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD at approximately 1.2 mb/d.
• The demand distribution indicates a stronger growth trajectory in non-OECD regions, driven by emerging economies.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and increased industrial activity, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
World Oil Supply Analysis
• Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
• In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
• The outlook for DoC NGLs remains stable, contributing to overall supply dynamics.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
• In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
• The outlook for DoC NGLs remains stable, contributing to overall supply dynamics.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
• Refining margins declined across all trading hubs in January due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures.
• In the US Gulf Coast, margins were negatively impacted by increased heavy crude supply.
• Rotterdam saw declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline.
• Singapore experienced a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
• Seasonal demand pressures continue to influence refining operations and margins.
• In the US Gulf Coast, margins were negatively impacted by increased heavy crude supply.
• Rotterdam saw declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline.
• Singapore experienced a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
• Seasonal demand pressures continue to influence refining operations and margins.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
• Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
• VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by 64% year-on-year.
• Suezmax rates increased due to Atlantic basin weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also saw significant gains.
• In the clean tanker market, rates improved, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, indicating strong long-haul demand patterns.
• VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by 64% year-on-year.
• Suezmax rates increased due to Atlantic basin weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also saw significant gains.
• In the clean tanker market, rates improved, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, indicating strong long-haul demand patterns.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
• US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d.
• OECD Europe saw a decline in crude imports, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan, while product exports increased.
• Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while product imports declined by 3%.
• India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, indicating stable demand.
• OECD Europe saw a decline in crude imports, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan, while product exports increased.
• Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while product imports declined by 3%.
• India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, indicating stable demand.
Commercial Stock Movements
• OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb in December, reaching 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher year-on-year.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, indicating shifts in inventory dynamics.
• Days of forward cover increased by 0.7 days m-o-m, standing at 62.8 days, reflecting a stable supply situation.
• Comparatively, OECD stocks are 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, indicating shifts in inventory dynamics.
• Days of forward cover increased by 0.7 days m-o-m, standing at 62.8 days, reflecting a stable supply situation.
• Comparatively, OECD stocks are 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
• The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, increasing to 43.6 mb/d in 2027.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is forecasted at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d, leading to a DoC requirement gap.
• The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the growing demand.
• The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026 and 2027:
• The strategic outlook for production decisions will need to consider these dynamics to ensure market stability.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is forecasted at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d, leading to a DoC requirement gap.
• The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the growing demand.
• The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026 and 2027:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-26
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: 845
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-26
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,003,795 contracts (+845)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,924 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -18,295 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 366,141 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -561,614 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
52
Last Updated:
2026-06-03 23:52:40
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher; Trump Seeks to Quell Israel-Hezbollah Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.5
Daily:
0.28 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.48 (0.48%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.04 (0.81%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.81%)
SP500
7553.68
Daily:
-56.1 (-0.74%)
Weekly:
-9.95 (-0.13%)
VIX
16.06
Daily:
0.29 (1.84%)
Weekly:
0.32 (2.03%)
GOLD
4489.0
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-10.3 (-0.23%)
COPPER
6.47
Daily:
-0.18 (-2.77%)
Weekly:
0.07 (1.09%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$95.23
Closest Support:
$92.35
3.02% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$97.18
2.05% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$76.73
0.236
$86.38
0.382
$92.35
Support
0.5
$97.18
Resistance
0.618
$102.01
0.786
$108.88
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$128.75
1.618
$142.91
2.0
$158.53
2.618
$183.81
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$96.02
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-03 23:52:42
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | $95.92 | $88.62 | $103.21 |
| 2026-06-05 | $95.62 | $88.33 | $102.92 |
| 2026-06-06 | $96.16 | $88.86 | $103.45 |
| 2026-06-07 | $96.31 | $89.02 | $103.61 |
| 2026-06-08 | $96.48 | $89.19 | $103.78 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2026-06-04), reaching $95.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-04 and 2026-06-08.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bullish sentiment, with the Brent crude price averaging $64.73/b and WTI at $60.26/b. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.47/b, indicating a divergence in supply/demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets. Traders should monitor this spread as it could signal potential volatility in the near term. The recent increase in managed money net positions suggests a stronger bullish trend, but the weakening sentiment indicates caution is warranted.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions suggest an opportunity for strategic production planning. With the supply-demand balance indicating a slight increase in demand for DoC crude, producers may consider adjusting output levels accordingly. The easing inventory levels (OECD crude stocks decreased by 2.1 mb) could support prices, while the positive market sentiment may encourage hedging strategies to lock in current prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with WTI at $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. Geopolitical tensions and inventory levels may affect supply reliability. The recent surge in crude imports from key markets like China and Japan indicates a need for robust procurement strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a convergence of bullish fundamentals, including rising prices and increased managed money positions. The supply-demand outlook remains stable, with global demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. However, the decline in refining margins and geopolitical uncertainties could pose challenges. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in sentiment and positioning, particularly as geopolitical events unfold.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.