After exiting last week on hopes of peace - the weekend and beginning of the week has brought doubt to the peace prospects taking us from the $87 WTI level to over $96 in the last 4 trading sessions. Physical barrels are trading much higher and are likely going to drive prices up and “pull” the price up to those levels. Current range is 90.82 to 94.35 based upon news cycles - the Israel/Lebanon peace deal is bringing optimism on a peace deal with US/Iran - I remain skeptical.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-05 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have surged from $87 WTI to over $96 amidst fluctuating geopolitical tensions and demand uncertainties. Recent discussions around a potential peace deal involving Iran have become murky, with traders skeptical about its impact on supply. Meanwhile, weak demand from China has compounded concerns, leading to a current trading range of $90.82 to $94.35. As sentiment remains cautious, traders should keep an eye on physical barrel prices, geopolitical developments, and global demand trends for future direction.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$95.03
$2.78
WTI:
$93.04
$2.98
Spread:
$1.99
(Brent premium of $1.99)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
90,765
Weekly Change:
10,841
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$90.25
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $91.56
MA(20): $96.75
Current Price is 90.25, 9 day MA 91.56, 20 day MA 96.75
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.7208
Signal: -1.0198
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.06
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 215,733
Avg (20d): 243,712
Ratio: 0.89
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 16.87
%D: 29.21
Stochastic %K: 16.87, %D: 29.21. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.88
+DI: 20.35
-DI: 25.67
ADX: 14.88 (+DI: 20.35, -DI: 25.67). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -83.13
Williams %R: -83.13 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 108.76
Middle: 96.75
Lower: 84.74
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 108.76, Middle: 96.75, Lower: 84.74
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13707.0 | 13715.0 | 13401.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6397.0 | 5212.0 | 6351.0 | 6601.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5874.0 | 4440.0 | 4301.0 | 3627.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16881.0 | 16971.0 | 16328.0 | 16929.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 523.0 | 772.0 | 2050.0 | 2973.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 433712.0 | 441686.0 | 440363.0 | 450395.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1573470.0 | 1584032.0 | 1623724.0 | 1631089.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214955.0 | 211591.0 | 223081.0 | 226020.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102301.0 | 100799.0 | 103408.0 | 113951.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $95.03, change $-2.78. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $93.04, change $-2.98. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.99 (Brent premium of $1.99). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$95.03
2.78
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$93.04
2.98
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$1.99
Brent premium of $1.99
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a rise of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone and Japan's economic growth forecasts are stable at 1.2% and 0.9% for both years, respectively. China's growth forecast remains at 4.5% for both years, while India's is projected at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is estimated at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and the non-OECD forecasted to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were noted in the bottom section of the barrel, while in Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also saw a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also experienced a strong performance, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed robust performance, particularly in the East of Suez.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined due to lower flows from Kazakhstan, while Japan saw a surge in crude imports to nearly 3 mb/d. China's crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y. The days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the upcoming years:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates a strategic outlook for production decisions. The gap between world demand and non-DoC supply highlights the importance of DoC crude to meet future demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-02
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: 21,385
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-02
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,025,180 contracts (+21,385)
Managed Money Net Position: 90,765 contracts (4.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +10,841 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 358,016 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -546,125 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2026-06-05 23:52:22
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.07
Daily:
0.66 (0.66%)
Weekly:
0.87 (0.88%)
US_10Y
4.54
Daily:
0.06 (1.32%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.36%)
SP500
7383.74
Daily:
-200.57 (-2.64%)
Weekly:
-216.22 (-2.85%)
VIX
21.51
Daily:
6.11 (39.68%)
Weekly:
5.46 (34.02%)
GOLD
4353.9
Daily:
-121.9 (-2.72%)
Weekly:
-121.3 (-2.71%)
COPPER
6.28
Daily:
-0.24 (-3.62%)
Weekly:
-0.25 (-3.81%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$90.25
Closest Support:
$89.31
1.04% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$94.72
4.95% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$80.56
0.236
$89.31
Support
0.382
$94.72
Resistance
0.5
$99.09
0.618
$103.47
0.786
$109.7
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$127.71
1.618
$140.54
2.0
$154.7
2.618
$177.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$93.04
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-05 23:52:24
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.18%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | $92.87 | $85.51 | $100.23 |
| 2026-06-06 | $93.61 | $86.25 | $100.97 |
| 2026-06-07 | $93.71 | $86.35 | $101.06 |
| 2026-06-08 | $93.87 | $86.51 | $101.23 |
| 2026-06-09 | $93.57 | $86.21 | $100.93 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2026-06-05), reaching $92.87.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-05 and 2026-06-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The overall market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.600. This indicates a potential upward price direction for crude oil, particularly with the Brent crude averaging $64.73/b and WTI at $60.26/b. The Brent-WTI spread has risen to $4.47/b, suggesting stronger global demand dynamics compared to U.S. supply. Traders should monitor the Fibonacci retracement levels for potential support at $60.00 and resistance at $65.00, as these levels can guide short-term trading strategies.
Speculative positioning shows an increase in net long positions, indicating a bullish trend. However, the geopolitical uncertainties could introduce volatility, making it essential to stay alert for any news that could impact prices.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the demand for DoC crude projected at 43.0 mb/d for 2026, producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly. The decline in crude oil production from DoC countries by 439 tb/d in January may provide an opportunity to optimize output levels to meet rising demand.
The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial stocks rising by 6.5 mb, suggest a need for careful hedging strategies to mitigate price fluctuations. The market sentiment may favor higher prices, but producers should remain cautious of potential supply disruptions and geopolitical factors that could impact operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with Brent at $64.73/b and WTI at $60.26/b. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating inventories may affect procurement strategies.
The decline in product exports from the U.S. and rising imports in other regions indicate a tightening supply chain. Companies should consider hedging against rising fuel costs to mitigate impacts on operational expenses.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bullish sentiment, driven by a combination of factors: robust demand growth forecasts of 1.4 mb/d in 2026, tightening supply from OPEC, and increased speculative positioning. The balance between supply and demand remains favorable, with non-DoC production growth largely offsetting OPEC's production cuts.
Analysts should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and inventory levels, as these could lead to significant shifts in market dynamics. The ML price predictions indicate potential upward trends, suggesting that further analysis of technical indicators and market sentiment will be critical in navigating this evolving landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions.