After exiting last week on hopes of peace - the weekend and beginning of the week has brought doubt to the peace prospects taking us from the $87 WTI level to over $96 in the last 4 trading sessions. Physical barrels are trading much higher and are likely going to drive prices up and “pull” the price up to those levels. Current range is 90.82 to 94.35 based upon news cycles - the Israel/Lebanon peace deal is bringing optimism on a peace deal with US/Iran - I remain skeptical. After dropping to $90 on hopes of peace - the market ticked back up to $92-93 as doubt is inserted back into the equation. 97.90 is likely on the table again.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-08 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has seen a rollercoaster ride, climbing from $87 to over $96 amidst fluctuating peace prospects in the Middle East. Doubts about a US-Iran deal are pushing physical barrel prices higher, with the current trading range at $90.82 to $94.35. Optimism from the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire fuels speculation, although skepticism remains. Traders should watch for levels around $97.90 as geopolitical tensions continue to impact supply dynamics. Keep an eye on the volatility; it’s a wild ride out there!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$93.09
$1.94
WTI:
$90.54
$2.5
Spread:
$2.55
(Brent premium of $2.55)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
90,765
Weekly Change:
10,841
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$90.09
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $91.17
MA(20): $96.5
Current Price is 90.09, 9 day MA 91.17, 20 day MA 96.5
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.8703
Signal: -1.1862
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.86
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.86 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 10,455
Avg (20d): 233,922
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 16.34
%D: 21.13
Stochastic %K: 16.34, %D: 21.13. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.64
+DI: 19.94
-DI: 25.15
ADX: 14.64 (+DI: 19.94, -DI: 25.15). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -83.66
Williams %R: -83.66 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 108.82
Middle: 96.5
Lower: 84.18
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 108.82, Middle: 96.5, Lower: 84.18
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13707.0 | 13715.0 | 13401.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6397.0 | 5212.0 | 6351.0 | 6601.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5874.0 | 4440.0 | 4301.0 | 3627.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16881.0 | 16971.0 | 16328.0 | 16929.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 523.0 | 772.0 | 2050.0 | 2973.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 433712.0 | 441686.0 | 440363.0 | 450395.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1573470.0 | 1584032.0 | 1623724.0 | 1631089.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214955.0 | 211591.0 | 223081.0 | 226020.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102301.0 | 100799.0 | 103408.0 | 113951.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $93.09, change $-1.94. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $90.54, change $-2.5. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.55 (Brent premium of $2.55). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$93.09
1.94
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$90.54
2.5
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.55
Brent premium of $2.55
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment, projected at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Specific growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years.
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years.
- India: Forecasted at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil: Steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
- Russia: Unchanged at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d.
- Non-OECD: Anticipated growth of about 1.2 mb/d.
For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.
- In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses primarily from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supply.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decrease.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, reaching a decade-high, up by 64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, due to weather disruptions and increased demand from European refiners.
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route increased by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trade flow developments include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- In Japan, crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China’s crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India’s crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, with the DoC requirement for crude oil in 2026 at 43.0 mb/d, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to ensure market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-02
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: 21,385
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-02
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,025,180 contracts (+21,385)
Managed Money Net Position: 90,765 contracts (4.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +10,841 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 358,016 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -546,125 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
26
Last Updated:
2026-06-08 23:52:58
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.98
Daily:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
0.76 (0.76%)
US_10Y
4.55
Daily:
0.02 (0.35%)
Weekly:
0.1 (2.18%)
SP500
7405.73
Daily:
21.99 (0.3%)
Weekly:
-204.05 (-2.68%)
VIX
18.92
Daily:
-2.59 (-12.04%)
Weekly:
3.15 (19.97%)
GOLD
4359.7
Daily:
22.6 (0.52%)
Weekly:
-129.4 (-2.88%)
COPPER
6.33
Daily:
0.06 (0.99%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-4.87%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$90.09
Closest Support:
$89.31
0.87% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$94.72
5.14% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$80.56
0.236
$89.31
Support
0.382
$94.72
Resistance
0.5
$99.09
0.618
$103.47
0.786
$109.7
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$127.71
1.618
$140.54
2.0
$154.7
2.618
$177.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$91.3
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-08 23:53:00
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.3%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | $91.58 | $84.33 | $98.82 |
| 2026-06-10 | $91.72 | $84.48 | $98.96 |
| 2026-06-11 | $91.42 | $84.18 | $98.66 |
| 2026-06-12 | $91.17 | $83.93 | $98.42 |
| 2026-06-13 | $91.28 | $84.04 | $98.53 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.30% for the next trading day (2026-06-09), reaching $91.58.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-09 and 2026-06-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, indicated by a significant increase in Managed Money Net Positions (+10,841 contracts), suggests potential upward price movement. The Brent-WTI spread at $2.55 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, with Brent maintaining a premium. Traders should monitor support levels around $60.26/b (WTI) and $62.31/b (ORB) as key indicators for potential price reversals. Volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand pressures, particularly in the refining sector.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The supply-demand balance indicates a steady demand for DoC crude, projected at 43.0 mb/d for 2026, supporting production planning. However, with OECD inventories rising, particularly in product stocks, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate price fluctuations. The $62.31/b average price could influence production decisions, particularly in light of the inventory levels and geopolitical uncertainties affecting supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI averaging $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The geopolitical factors and rising inventories could impact supply reliability, necessitating proactive procurement strategies. Refineries, in particular, may face challenges with declining refining margins, which could influence operational costs and profitability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bullish trend, driven by increasing demand forecasts and speculative positioning. Key driving factors include supply constraints from OPEC and rising global demand, particularly from non-OECD countries. However, the neutral sentiment in news articles suggests a cautious outlook. Analysts should closely monitor the implications of inventory levels and geopolitical developments that could shift market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.