Crude is trading 100% on headlines - breaking all the way down to $85.95 on news that Iran/Israel took measures to de-escalate driving crude from $90.82 to $85.95 and then back to $89 on reported news that Iran shoots down an Apache Helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. This is resulting in an announced retaliation from the US to Iran. So we are almost back to where we started but there is some hope and optimism of a resolution. If peace is reached 81.29 is the level that we will reach and possibly extend to 76.26 or further south.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-09 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil has been on a rollercoaster, swinging from $90.82 to a low of $85.95, primarily driven by geopolitical headlines. Recent tensions, including Iran's downing of a U.S. helicopter, have spurred volatility, with prices rebounding to around $89 amidst retaliation threats from the U.S. Optimism for a potential resolution could see prices target $81.29, but a failure to stabilize could push them lower, possibly down to $76.26. Keep your eyes on geopolitical developments; they’re the real market movers right now!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$94.25
$1.16
WTI:
$91.3
$0.76
Spread:
$2.95
(Brent premium of $2.95)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
90,765
Weekly Change:
10,841
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$88.84
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $91.32
MA(20): $96.1
Current Price is 88.84, 9 day MA 91.32, 20 day MA 96.1
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -2.0094
Signal: -1.3354
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.63
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.63 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 18,691
Avg (20d): 235,454
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 13.76
%D: 17.83
Stochastic %K: 13.76, %D: 17.83. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.03
+DI: 20.53
-DI: 25.83
ADX: 14.03 (+DI: 20.53, -DI: 25.83). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -86.24
Williams %R: -86.24 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 108.73
Middle: 96.1
Lower: 83.46
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 108.73, Middle: 96.1, Lower: 83.46
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13707.0 | 13715.0 | 13401.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6397.0 | 5212.0 | 6351.0 | 6601.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5874.0 | 4440.0 | 4301.0 | 3627.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16881.0 | 16971.0 | 16328.0 | 16929.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 523.0 | 772.0 | 2050.0 | 2973.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 433712.0 | 441686.0 | 440363.0 | 450395.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1573470.0 | 1584032.0 | 1623724.0 | 1631089.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214955.0 | 211591.0 | 223081.0 | 226020.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102301.0 | 100799.0 | 103408.0 | 113951.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $94.25, change $+1.16. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $91.3, change $+0.76. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.95 (Brent premium of $2.95). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$94.25
1.16
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$91.3
0.76
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.95
Brent premium of $2.95
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent-WTI front-month spread widened by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, indicating a move into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, reduced selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively stable, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, as hedge funds and other money managers significantly increased their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable, projected at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The growth outlooks for key economies are as follows:
- US: 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by +0.6 mb/d y-o-y in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
- In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439,000 b/d m-o-m, averaging 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased heavy crude supplies impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
- In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline.
- Singapore saw a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, influenced by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key trends include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by +64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose by +12% m-o-m on the USGC-to-Europe route, more than double year-ago levels.
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates up by +10% m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route increased by +17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Notable trends include:
- US crude exports rose by +0.2 mb/d m-o-m to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while product imports declined by 3%.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicates that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by +6.5 mb m-o-m to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, +75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by +0.7 days m-o-m to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, and for 2027, it is projected at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, with the 2026 world demand of 106.5 mb/d exceeding non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions moving forward to ensure market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-02
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: 21,385
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-02
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,025,180 contracts (+21,385)
Managed Money Net Position: 90,765 contracts (4.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +10,841 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 358,016 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -546,125 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
40
Last Updated:
2026-06-09 23:53:06
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher Amid Ongoing Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Could Unwind 2022 Output Cuts Eventually, But Market Dynamics Might Complicate Path — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Escalating Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.94
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
0.42 (0.42%)
US_10Y
4.53
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.82%)
SP500
7386.65
Daily:
-19.08 (-0.26%)
Weekly:
-167.03 (-2.21%)
VIX
19.87
Daily:
0.95 (5.02%)
Weekly:
3.81 (23.72%)
GOLD
4203.0
Daily:
-132.9 (-3.07%)
Weekly:
-233.7 (-5.27%)
COPPER
6.31
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.34%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.67%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$88.84
Closest Support:
$80.56
9.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$89.31
0.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$80.56
Support
0.236
$89.31
Resistance
0.382
$94.72
0.5
$99.09
0.618
$103.47
0.786
$109.7
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$127.71
1.618
$140.54
2.0
$154.7
2.618
$177.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$88.2
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-09 23:53:08
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.33%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | $88.49 | $81.72 | $95.26 |
| 2026-06-11 | $88.45 | $81.68 | $95.22 |
| 2026-06-12 | $88.14 | $81.37 | $94.91 |
| 2026-06-13 | $88.26 | $81.49 | $95.03 |
| 2026-06-14 | $87.98 | $81.21 | $94.75 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.33% for the next trading day (2026-06-10), reaching $88.49.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-10 and 2026-06-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment with the Brent-WTI spread at $2.95, reflecting ongoing supply/demand disparities. The front-month contracts have shown resilience, moving into stronger backwardation, which may indicate potential support levels around $60.26 for WTI and $64.73 for Brent.
Given the volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, traders should monitor the resistance levels closely, particularly near recent highs. The CFTC data indicates a strengthening managed money positioning, which could amplify price movements. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations in the Brent-WTI spread, especially if geopolitical risks escalate further.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current supply-demand balance indicates a steady demand for DoC crude, projected at 43.0 mb/d in 2026, with a slight increase expected in 2027. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and adjusting hedging strategies to mitigate potential price volatility.
The rise in OECD commercial stocks suggests a need for careful inventory management, particularly as crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb while product stocks increased. This dynamic could impact operational decisions and pricing strategies. Additionally, the bullish market sentiment may provide favorable conditions for production increases, but producers should remain cautious of geopolitical risks affecting supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With current crude prices averaging around $60.26 for WTI and $64.73 for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions may pose reliability risks, particularly for procurement strategies.
The decline in US product exports and rising crude imports in regions like Japan and China indicate shifting supply dynamics. Refineries should assess their hedging strategies to manage costs effectively, especially in light of the declining refining margins reported across trading hubs. Ensuring a diversified supply chain may mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market currently presents a bullish outlook driven by strong demand forecasts and tightening supply, particularly from DoC countries. The forward curves indicate a strengthening backwardation, suggesting that immediate pricing pressures may persist.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the fundamental balance between supply and demand, especially as global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. The recent CFTC positioning highlights a significant bullish sentiment among managed money, which could signal further price increases if geopolitical tensions escalate. Continuous monitoring of news sentiment is crucial as it may shift rapidly, impacting market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.