Crude spent the week getting talked lower, settling at $84.88 for its lowest close since April 17 and sliding to $84.39 while Brent printed $86.89, its weakest since March 5 — and it did it on words, not barrels, because Iran's foreign minister calling the MOU "never closer" and Trump reportedly approving the draft was enough to bleed a $15-plus war premium out of a market that is still, physically, drum-tight. Commercial crude sits at 426.5 MMbbl, roughly 5% under the five-year, the SPR has bled to 349.2 on a seventh straight draw, and yet the screen is pricing a clean Hormuz reopening that hasn't been signed, ratified, or even agreed on the elements — with Pakistan mediating and the whole thing waiting on Iran's leadership. That gap, between a tape sprinting toward $76 and a physical market that never actually loosened, is the entire setup, and it cuts both ways: managed money is already gutted ~25%, so there's almost no long-side fuel to cushion a snap-back, while 433 oil rigs (a seventh straight build) and an EIA production path to 14.2 Mb/d by 2027 quietly stack weight on the other side. Where it goes is a weekend coin-flip with fat tails — a signed deal walks us down $81.29 then $76.26 (J.P. Morgan's ~$60 lurking if peace holds), a talks stumble snaps the premium straight back to $91–$108 as shorts scramble to cover, and a collapse that puts energy infrastructure back on the table re-arms the $120 physical anchor with Rystad's $150 still in the tail. The move that matters this week probably happens while the market is closed, so size for the gap, not the grind.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-12 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have dropped to $84.88, the lowest since April, largely due to optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite commercial crude stocks sitting at 426.5 MMbbl—5% below the five-year average—and ongoing draws from the SPR, the market is pricing in a hypothetical agreement that hasn’t yet been solidified. With oil rigs increasing and production expected to rise, traders are caught in a precarious situation where sentiment may shift dramatically based on developments over the weekend. Keep an eye on potential price swings!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$90.38
$2.72
WTI:
$87.71
$2.32
Spread:
$2.67
(Brent premium of $2.67)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
94,725
Weekly Change:
3,960
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$84.29
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $90.54
MA(20): $93.95
Current Price is 84.29, 9 day MA 90.54, 20 day MA 93.95
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -2.7262
Signal: -1.8762
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 37.42
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 37.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 207,640
Avg (20d): 259,751
Ratio: 0.8
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 7.9
%D: 15.57
Stochastic %K: 7.9, %D: 15.57. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.36
+DI: 18.33
-DI: 25.59
ADX: 14.36 (+DI: 18.33, -DI: 25.59). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -92.1
Williams %R: -92.1 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 107.17
Middle: 93.95
Lower: 80.72
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 107.17, Middle: 93.95, Lower: 80.72
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13799.0 | 13707.0 | 13408.0 | 13009.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5888.0 | 6397.0 | 6346.0 | 6953.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4840.0 | 5874.0 | 3907.0 | 3248.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16962.0 | 16881.0 | 16998.0 | 16953.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1048.0 | 523.0 | 2439.0 | 3705.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426485.0 | 433712.0 | 436059.0 | 453063.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1559930.0 | 1573470.0 | 1637159.0 | 1640575.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 215141.0 | 214955.0 | 228300.0 | 228079.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102101.0 | 102301.0 | 107638.0 | 115368.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $90.38, change $-2.72. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $87.71, change $-2.32. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.67 (Brent premium of $2.67). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$90.38
2.72
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$87.71
2.32
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.67
Brent premium of $2.67
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key regional growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is also positive, with growth of 0.1 mb/d expected in both years.
In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses stemmed from increased availability of heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key developments include:
- VLCC spot freight rates reached a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, more than double year-ago levels
- Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates increased, with Middle East-to-East rates up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average. Key trade trends include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb, 14.4 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is assessed at 43.0 mb/d, while for 2027 it is projected at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-09
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,006,635 contracts (-18,545)
Managed Money Net Position: 94,725 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +3,960 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 365,942 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -536,668 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
73
Last Updated:
2026-06-12 23:53:22
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Oil Rises Amid Escalating Supply-Disruption Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Escalating Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
Demand (3 articles)
- US EIA SEES US CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT EXPORTS UP 1.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 TO AVERAGE 4.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 Mace News
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
- Oil Falls on Easing War Risks and Weak China Demand Trading Economics
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Oil Futures Gain as Middle East Tensions Rise Again — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Hostilities and Bullish EIA Report Boost Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Prices Volatile Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
- Oil Settles Lower on Continued Hopes for Middle East Deal — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.81
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.24 (-0.24%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7431.46
Daily:
37.16 (0.5%)
Weekly:
25.73 (0.35%)
VIX
17.68
Daily:
-1.76 (-9.05%)
Weekly:
-1.24 (-6.55%)
GOLD
4239.9
Daily:
149.6 (3.66%)
Weekly:
-96.0 (-2.21%)
COPPER
6.47
Daily:
0.22 (3.44%)
Weekly:
0.14 (2.28%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$84.29
Closest Support:
$80.56
4.43% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$89.31
5.96% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$80.56
Support
0.236
$89.31
Resistance
0.382
$94.72
0.5
$99.09
0.618
$103.47
0.786
$109.7
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$127.71
1.618
$140.54
2.0
$154.7
2.618
$177.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$87.71
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-12 23:53:23
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.36%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | $87.4 | $80.62 | $94.17 |
| 2026-06-13 | $87.7 | $80.93 | $94.48 |
| 2026-06-14 | $87.36 | $80.58 | $94.14 |
| 2026-06-15 | $87.55 | $80.78 | $94.33 |
| 2026-06-16 | $87.34 | $80.57 | $94.12 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.36% for the next trading day (2026-06-12), reaching $87.40.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-12 and 2026-06-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. The Brent-WTI spread is $2.67, reflecting ongoing supply/demand dynamics. The support level to watch is around $60.00 for WTI, while resistance could be seen near $64.00 for Brent.
Recent bullish positioning by managed money traders, with a net long position increase of 3,960 contracts, suggests potential upward price movement in the short term. However, volatility is expected due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand forecasts, especially with weather disruptions affecting supply chains.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.4 mb/d, producers should focus on optimizing production levels, especially as hedging strategies may be necessary to mitigate price volatility. The recent decrease in OPEC crude oil production by 439 tb/d could present opportunities for price recovery.
Monitoring inventory levels is crucial, as OECD crude stocks rose to 1,363 mb, indicating a slight oversupply situation. This could pressure prices, so adjusting production accordingly could help maintain profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and inventory levels. The current Brent-WTI spread of $2.67 suggests a premium for Brent, which may impact procurement strategies.
Given the bearish market sentiment, it is advisable to consider hedging options to manage costs effectively, especially as refining margins are under pressure due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by mixed signals from supply and demand fundamentals. The stable demand growth forecast contrasts with rising inventories, particularly in OECD regions, which may weigh on prices.
Technical indicators suggest potential resistance levels near $64.00 for Brent, while the ML forecasts indicate a cautious outlook. Analysts should focus on geopolitical risks and the evolving supply landscape as critical factors that could shift market dynamics significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.