Crude spent the week getting talked lower, settling at $84.88 for its lowest close since April 17 and sliding to $84.39 while Brent printed $86.89, its weakest since March 5 — and it did it on words, not barrels, because Iran's foreign minister calling the MOU "never closer" and Trump reportedly approving the draft was enough to bleed a $15-plus war premium out of a market that is still, physically, drum-tight. Commercial crude sits at 426.5 MMbbl, roughly 5% under the five-year, the SPR has bled to 349.2 on a seventh straight draw, and yet the screen is pricing a clean Hormuz reopening that hasn't been signed, ratified, or even agreed on the elements — with Pakistan mediating and the whole thing waiting on Iran's leadership. That gap, between a tape sprinting toward $76 and a physical market that never actually loosened, is the entire setup, and it cuts both ways: managed money is already gutted ~25%, so there's almost no long-side fuel to cushion a snap-back, while 433 oil rigs (a seventh straight build) and an EIA production path to 14.2 Mb/d by 2027 quietly stack weight on the other side. Where it goes is a weekend coin-flip with fat tails — a signed deal walks us down $81.29 then $76.26 (J.P. Morgan's ~$60 lurking if peace holds), a talks stumble snaps the premium straight back to $91–$108 as shorts scramble to cover, and a collapse that puts energy infrastructure back on the table re-arms the $120 physical anchor with Rystad's $150 still in the tail. The move that matters this week probably happens while the market is closed, so size for the gap, not the grind.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-13 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices slid to an 8-week low, settling at $84.88, primarily driven by speculation around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Despite tight physical supply—commercial crude stocks at 426.5 million barrels, 5% below the five-year average—the market's reaction highlights a disconnect, with prices reflecting anticipated peace rather than actual supply dynamics. Vigilance is required as a signed deal could push prices to $81.29, while failure to finalize terms may send them soaring back above $90. Keep an eye on rig counts and geopolitical developments as catalysts for swings.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$87.33
$3.05
WTI:
$84.88
$2.83
Spread:
$2.45
(Brent premium of $2.45)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
94,725
Weekly Change:
3,960
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$84.88
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $90.61
MA(20): $93.98
Current Price is 84.88, 9 day MA 90.61, 20 day MA 93.98
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -2.6791
Signal: -1.8668
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 38.01
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 38.01 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 317,151
Avg (20d): 265,227
Ratio: 1.2
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 12.17
%D: 16.99
Stochastic %K: 12.17, %D: 16.99. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.36
+DI: 18.33
-DI: 25.59
ADX: 14.36 (+DI: 18.33, -DI: 25.59). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -87.83
Williams %R: -87.83 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 107.12
Middle: 93.98
Lower: 80.83
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 107.12, Middle: 93.98, Lower: 80.83
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13799.0 | 13707.0 | 13408.0 | 13009.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5888.0 | 6397.0 | 6346.0 | 6953.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4840.0 | 5874.0 | 3907.0 | 3248.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16962.0 | 16881.0 | 16998.0 | 16953.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1048.0 | 523.0 | 2439.0 | 3705.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426485.0 | 433712.0 | 436059.0 | 453063.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1559930.0 | 1573470.0 | 1637159.0 | 1640575.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 215141.0 | 214955.0 | 228300.0 | 228079.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102101.0 | 102301.0 | 107638.0 | 115368.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $87.33, change $-3.05. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $84.88, change $-2.83. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.45 (Brent premium of $2.45). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$87.33
3.05
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$84.88
2.83
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.45
Brent premium of $2.45
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase, rising by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This trend was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The economic outlook for major economies is as follows:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Remains at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Remains at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: Remains at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: Remains at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Remains at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these economic forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is as follows:
- 2026: Expected to average about 8.8 mb/d
- 2027: Expected to average about 8.9 mb/d
In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC rates: Up by 64%, y-o-y, reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade
- Suezmax rates: Up by 12%, m-o-m, more than double year-ago levels
- Aframax rates: Strong performance with rates reaching a 10-year high for the month
- Clean tanker market: Spot freight rates led by East of Suez, with rates up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, in line with the five-year average. Key trade flow developments include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting similar growth.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d in 2026, highlighting the strategic need for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-09
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,006,635 contracts (-18,545)
Managed Money Net Position: 94,725 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +3,960 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 365,942 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -536,668 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
50
Last Updated:
2026-06-13 23:52:42
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Futures Gain as Middle East Tensions Rise Again — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Hostilities and Bullish EIA Report Boost Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Prices Volatile Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.75
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
-0.3 (-0.3%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7431.46
Daily:
37.16 (0.5%)
Weekly:
25.73 (0.35%)
VIX
17.68
Daily:
-1.76 (-9.05%)
Weekly:
-1.24 (-6.55%)
GOLD
4215.0
Daily:
124.7 (3.05%)
Weekly:
-120.9 (-2.79%)
COPPER
6.43
Daily:
0.17 (2.74%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.6%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$84.88
Closest Support:
$80.56
5.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$89.31
5.22% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$80.56
Support
0.236
$89.31
Resistance
0.382
$94.72
0.5
$99.09
0.618
$103.47
0.786
$109.7
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$127.71
1.618
$140.54
2.0
$154.7
2.618
$177.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$84.88
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-13 23:52:44
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.51%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | $85.32 | $78.76 | $91.87 |
| 2026-06-14 | $85.14 | $78.58 | $91.7 |
| 2026-06-15 | $85.28 | $78.72 | $91.84 |
| 2026-06-16 | $85.08 | $78.52 | $91.64 |
| 2026-06-17 | $84.78 | $78.23 | $91.34 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.51% for the next trading day (2026-06-13), reaching $85.32.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-13 and 2026-06-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest potential upward price momentum for crude oil, particularly with the $62.31/b average of the OPEC Reference Basket and the $64.73/b for ICE Brent. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.47/b, indicating robust demand in the global market versus U.S. supply dynamics.
Traders should watch for Fibonacci resistance levels that may emerge around recent peaks, with the potential for volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations. The bullish sentiment among managed money traders, which increased their net positions by +3,960 contracts, suggests a favorable trading environment for speculative strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance of supply and demand appears stable, with demand for DoC crude projected at 43.0 mb/d for 2026. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in response to the strong market sentiment and the ongoing inventory fluctuations, particularly with OECD commercial stocks rising by 6.5 mb m-o-m.
Hedging strategies might be beneficial, especially given the current bullish positioning among managed money traders. The recent decline in crude production from DoC countries by 439 tb/d could also provide opportunities for producers to capture higher prices in the near term.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Input costs are likely to experience fluctuations as crude oil prices remain elevated, with WTI averaging $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. Consumers should be aware of supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand pressures, especially with the increased product stocks in OECD regions.
Procurement strategies may need to adapt to these evolving dynamics, with a focus on securing supply amidst the backdrop of fluctuating prices and potential disruptions in the market. The recent surge in crude imports in major markets like China and Japan suggests a tightening supply landscape that could impact future pricing.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by strong bullish sentiment, driven by a combination of fundamentals, technical indicators, and geopolitical factors. The global oil demand growth forecast remains stable at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, while non-DoC supply is projected to increase, maintaining a delicate balance in the market.
Analysts should closely monitor the impact of geopolitical tensions on pricing and supply chains, as well as the implications of rising managed money positions in the futures market. The evolving dynamics of the Brent-WTI spread and refining margins present critical indicators for future price movements and market sentiment shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.