Crude spent the week getting talked lower, settling at $84.88 for its lowest close since April 17 and sliding to $84.39 while Brent printed $86.89, its weakest since March 5 — and it did it on words, not barrels, because Iran's foreign minister calling the MOU "never closer" and Trump reportedly approving the draft was enough to bleed a $15-plus war premium out of a market that is still, physically, drum-tight. Commercial crude sits at 426.5 MMbbl, roughly 5% under the five-year, the SPR has bled to 349.2 on a seventh straight draw, and yet the screen is pricing a clean Hormuz reopening that hasn't been signed, ratified, or even agreed on the elements — with Pakistan mediating and the whole thing waiting on Iran's leadership. That gap, between a tape sprinting toward $76 and a physical market that never actually loosened, is the entire setup, and it cuts both ways: managed money is already gutted ~25%, so there's almost no long-side fuel to cushion a snap-back, while 433 oil rigs (a seventh straight build) and an EIA production path to 14.2 Mb/d by 2027 quietly stack weight on the other side. Where it goes is a weekend coin-flip with fat tails — a signed deal walks us down $81.29 then $76.26 (J.P. Morgan's ~$60 lurking if peace holds), a talks stumble snaps the premium straight back to $91–$108 as shorts scramble to cover, and a collapse that puts energy infrastructure back on the table re-arms the $120 physical anchor with Rystad's $150 still in the tail. The move that matters this week probably happens while the market is closed, so size for the gap, not the grind.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-14 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have dipped to their lowest levels since April, settling at $84.88 due to speculation around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. While commercial crude stocks are tight, at 426.5 MMbbl, the market appears to be pricing in an optimistic outlook that lacks solid agreements. With oil rigs on the rise and production expected to hit 14.2 Mb/d by 2027, the balance is precarious. Watch for market reactions to any signed agreements, as a deal could send prices lower, while a breakdown could ignite a bullish scramble.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$87.33
$3.05
WTI:
$84.88
$2.83
Spread:
$2.45
(Brent premium of $2.45)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
94,725
Weekly Change:
3,960
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$80.49
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $89.13
MA(20): $92.73
Current Price is 80.49, 9 day MA 89.13, 20 day MA 92.73
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -3.2803
Signal: -2.1495
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 33.77
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 33.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 30,151
Avg (20d): 261,907
Ratio: 0.12
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.88
%D: 9.82
Stochastic %K: 2.88, %D: 9.82. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.06
+DI: 17.19
-DI: 28.09
ADX: 15.06 (+DI: 17.19, -DI: 28.09). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.12
Williams %R: -97.12 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 106.02
Middle: 92.73
Lower: 79.44
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 106.02, Middle: 92.73, Lower: 79.44
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13799.0 | 13707.0 | 13408.0 | 13009.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5888.0 | 6397.0 | 6346.0 | 6953.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4840.0 | 5874.0 | 3907.0 | 3248.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16962.0 | 16881.0 | 16998.0 | 16953.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1048.0 | 523.0 | 2439.0 | 3705.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426485.0 | 433712.0 | 436059.0 | 453063.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1559930.0 | 1573470.0 | 1637159.0 | 1640575.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 215141.0 | 214955.0 | 228300.0 | 228079.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102101.0 | 102301.0 | 107638.0 | 115368.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $87.33, change $-3.05. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $84.88, change $-2.83. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.45 (Brent premium of $2.45). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$87.33
3.05
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$84.88
2.83
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.45
Brent premium of $2.45
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth forecasts are steady at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. China's growth remains at 4.5% for both years, while India is forecasted to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's forecasts are at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses were attributed to increased availability of heavy crude supplies impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also experienced a decline in margins driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for January in at least a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med Aframax rates rising by 10%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route increased by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports surged to an average of just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, m-o-m.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the years 2026 and 2027:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-09
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,006,635 contracts (-18,545)
Managed Money Net Position: 94,725 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +3,960 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 365,942 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -536,668 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
32
Last Updated:
2026-06-14 23:52:50
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.51
Daily:
-0.24 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
-0.4 (-0.4%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7431.46
Daily:
37.16 (0.5%)
Weekly:
25.73 (0.35%)
VIX
17.68
Daily:
-1.76 (-9.05%)
Weekly:
-1.24 (-6.55%)
GOLD
4345.3
Daily:
130.3 (3.09%)
Weekly:
85.3 (2.0%)
COPPER
6.54
Daily:
0.11 (1.7%)
Weekly:
0.24 (3.77%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$80.49
Closest Support:
$80.0
0.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$88.88
10.42% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$80.0
Support
0.236
$88.88
Resistance
0.382
$94.37
0.5
$98.81
0.618
$103.26
0.786
$109.58
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$127.87
1.618
$140.89
2.0
$155.26
2.618
$178.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$84.88
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-14 23:52:52
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.51%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | $85.31 | $78.75 | $91.87 |
| 2026-06-14 | $85.14 | $78.58 | $91.7 |
| 2026-06-15 | $85.27 | $78.72 | $91.83 |
| 2026-06-16 | $85.07 | $78.51 | $91.63 |
| 2026-06-17 | $84.77 | $78.22 | $91.33 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.51% for the next trading day (2026-06-13), reaching $85.31.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-13 and 2026-06-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the market, with the Brent and WTI contracts both showing upward trends. The $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a strong demand differential, suggesting that traders should monitor this spread closely for potential short-term opportunities. Given the support levels around $60.00/b for WTI and $62.00/b for Brent, any price dips towards these levels could present buying opportunities. The speculative positioning is increasingly bullish, with managed money increasing their net long positions, indicating potential for further upward momentum. However, traders should remain cautious of volatility due to geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, which could impact price stability.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market dynamics suggest that producers should consider adjusting their production planning in light of the supply-demand balance. With the forecast for global oil demand growth remaining steady at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, producers may want to align their output to meet this demand, particularly given the recent decline in crude oil production from OPEC members. The increase in inventories, particularly product stocks, indicates a need for careful hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. Producers should also keep an eye on the geopolitical landscape, as any disruptions could affect supply reliability and pricing.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, especially with WTI and Brent prices trending upwards. The $64.73/b Brent price could lead to increased procurement costs for refineries and transportation sectors. Additionally, the supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories necessitate strategic procurement planning. With product imports showing variability, consumers may need to consider hedging against rising prices and ensuring a consistent supply chain to mitigate operational disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bullish phase driven by strong demand forecasts and speculative positioning. Key drivers include the steady growth in global oil demand at 1.4 mb/d and the tightening balance of supply and demand with OPEC's production cuts. The backwardation in the forward curves of major benchmarks reflects market confidence, suggesting potential upward price movements. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as these could lead to significant shifts in market sentiment and price trajectory.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.