Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.

The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027.

• Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
• Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
• China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
• India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
• Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
• Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027

Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• OECD demand is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
• Non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d

In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.

In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d.

In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs. Stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures weighed on refining margins, despite a significant rise in offline capacity due to severe winter conditions in the Atlantic basin and extended maintenance in Asia.

• US Gulf Coast: Losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
• Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
• Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by weather disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, unplanned outages, and steady loading activity.

• VLCC spot freight rates rose significantly, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade high, up by 64%, y-o-y.
• Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, with USGC-to-Europe rates up by 12%, m-o-m.
• Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with Cross-Med Aframax rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
• In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.

• US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
• Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from elevated levels seen over previous months.
• Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020.
• China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
• India’s crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.

• OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.

The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 against a non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a significant gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward.