Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.

The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, indicating a shift into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This upward movement was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth forecasts are unchanged at 0.9%, and China is projected to grow at 4.5% for both years. India continues to show strong growth at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's economic growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is forecasted to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027, with a similar increase of 0.6 mb/d. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 to average about 8.9 mb/d. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. The US Gulf Coast (USGC) experienced losses primarily from the bottom section of the barrel, while in Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also saw a decrease in margins driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates began the year strongly, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for January in over a decade, increasing by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates experienced a strong performance, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates were bolstered by strong demand, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which saw a 17% m-o-m increase.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d. Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous months, while product imports in India declined by 5%, m-o-m.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher y-o-y and 44.1 mb above the five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y. The days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:

The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions to ensure market stability. The DoC requirement for 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, highlighting the need for careful management of production levels to meet anticipated demand.