Crude spent the week getting talked lower, settling at $84.88 for its lowest close since April 17 and sliding to $84.39 while Brent printed $86.89, its weakest since March 5 — and it did it on words, not barrels, because Iran's foreign minister calling the MOU "never closer" and Trump reportedly approving the draft was enough to bleed a $15-plus war premium out of a market that is still, physically, drum-tight. Commercial crude sits at 426.5 MMbbl, roughly 5% under the five-year, the SPR has bled to 349.2 on a seventh straight draw, and yet the screen is pricing a clean Hormuz reopening that hasn't been signed, ratified, or even agreed on the elements — with Pakistan mediating and the whole thing waiting on Iran's leadership. That gap, between a tape sprinting toward $76 and a physical market that never actually loosened, is the entire setup, and it cuts both ways: managed money is already gutted ~25%, so there's almost no long-side fuel to cushion a snap-back, while 433 oil rigs (a seventh straight build) and an EIA production path to 14.2 Mb/d by 2027 quietly stack weight on the other side. Where it goes is a weekend coin-flip with fat tails — a signed deal walks us down $81.29 then $76.26 (J.P. Morgan's ~$60 lurking if peace holds), a talks stumble snaps the premium straight back to $91–$108 as shorts scramble to cover, and a collapse that puts energy infrastructure back on the table re-arms the $120 physical anchor with Rystad's $150 still in the tail. The move that matters this week probably happens while the market is closed, so size for the gap, not the grind. Supposedly the deal is in the books and crude is struggling to stay above 80 - I am still skeptical on the deal
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-23 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil closed the week at $84.88, its lowest since April, driven down by speculative chatter over a potential Iran deal that could ease supply disruptions. Despite commercial crude inventories sitting 5% below the five-year average and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continuing to decline, the market is pricing in a hypothetical reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without a signed agreement. As trader sentiment shifts, a snap-back rally could happen if negotiations falter, with prices possibly bouncing back to the $91-$108 range. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$77.9
$1.95
WTI:
$74.82
$1.78
Spread:
$3.08
(Brent premium of $3.08)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
96,228
Weekly Change:
1,503
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$72.34
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $80.0
MA(20): $86.19
Current Price is 72.34, 9 day MA 80.0, 20 day MA 86.19
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -5.7382
Signal: -4.1313
Days since crossover: 22
MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 27.62
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 27.62 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,817
Avg (20d): 240,708
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.08
%D: 6.42
Stochastic %K: 1.08, %D: 6.42. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.78
+DI: 15.23
-DI: 30.82
ADX: 20.78 (+DI: 15.23, -DI: 30.82). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.92
Williams %R: -98.92 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 100.42
Middle: 86.19
Lower: 71.96
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 100.42, Middle: 86.19, Lower: 71.96
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13806.0 | 13799.0 | 13428.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5134.0 | 5888.0 | 6176.0 | 6239.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4327.0 | 4840.0 | 3286.0 | 4440.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17192.0 | 16962.0 | 17226.0 | 16699.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 807.0 | 1048.0 | 2890.0 | 1799.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 418222.0 | 426485.0 | 432415.0 | 447113.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1543113.0 | 1559930.0 | 1643559.0 | 1638368.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214235.0 | 215141.0 | 229804.0 | 227549.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 103052.0 | 102101.0 | 108884.0 | 115108.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $77.9, change $-1.95. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $74.82, change $-1.78. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.08 (Brent premium of $3.08). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$77.9
1.95
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$74.82
1.78
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.08
Brent premium of $3.08
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2.0% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecast is steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's economic growth is projected at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027, while China's growth remains at 4.5%. India's economic growth is forecasted at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth forecast is steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's growth is projected at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were noted primarily in the bottom section of the barrel. In Rotterdam, key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also experienced a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest levels for the month in at least a decade, increasing by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates experienced a strong performance, reaching a 10-year high for the month. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates were led by East of Suez, with significant increases noted.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan. Japan's crude imports surged, averaging just under 3 mb/d, while China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance analysis:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement for 2026 is 43.0 mb/d, indicating a significant gap that needs to be addressed to maintain market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-16
Managed Money
96,228
Change: +1,503
4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,716
Change: +12,774
18.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-544,055
Change: -7,387
-27.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,007,709
Change: 1,074
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,007,709 contracts (+1,074)
Managed Money Net Position: 96,228 contracts (4.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +1,503 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,716 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -544,055 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
41
Last Updated:
2026-06-23 23:53:49
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.45
Daily:
0.43 (0.42%)
Weekly:
1.91 (1.92%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.04 (0.94%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.54%)
SP500
7365.46
Daily:
-107.33 (-1.44%)
Weekly:
-145.89 (-1.94%)
VIX
19.49
Daily:
2.21 (12.79%)
Weekly:
3.08 (18.77%)
GOLD
4085.0
Daily:
-96.9 (-2.32%)
Weekly:
-245.9 (-5.68%)
COPPER
6.11
Daily:
-0.25 (-3.89%)
Weekly:
-0.38 (-5.85%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$72.34
Closest Support:
$72.07
0.37% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$82.82
14.49% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$72.07
Support
0.236
$82.82
Resistance
0.382
$89.47
0.5
$94.85
0.618
$100.23
0.786
$107.88
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$130.02
1.618
$145.79
2.0
$163.19
2.618
$191.35
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$73.21
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-23 23:53:51
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.34%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | $73.46 | $67.56 | $79.36 |
| 2026-06-25 | $73.51 | $67.61 | $79.4 |
| 2026-06-26 | $73.46 | $67.57 | $79.36 |
| 2026-06-27 | $73.27 | $67.38 | $79.17 |
| 2026-06-28 | $73.1 | $67.21 | $79.0 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.34% for the next trading day (2026-06-24), reaching $73.46.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-24 and 2026-06-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest potential bullish sentiment as managed money traders increase their net long positions, indicating a shift towards higher prices. The $62.31/b OPEC Reference Basket and the rise in both $64.73/b for ICE Brent and $60.26/b for NYMEX WTI reflect a strengthening market. Traders should be aware of the support levels around $60 and resistance levels near $65, particularly with the $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread indicating ongoing supply-demand dynamics. The geopolitical uncertainties and weather disruptions could introduce volatility, presenting both short-term trading opportunities and risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial stocks rising by 6.5 mb, suggest a need for careful production planning. A bearish sentiment from the news sentiment analysis (-0.600) could impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and potential supply disruptions. The expected growth in global oil demand of 1.4 mb/d in 2026 and 1.3 mb/d in 2027 indicates a favorable long-term outlook, but the decrease in DoC production may create tight supply conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as both $74.82 for WTI and $77.90 for Brent show upward trends. The supply reliability risks due to geopolitical factors and weather disruptions could impact procurement strategies. With product exports from the US averaging 7.0 mb/d and crude imports remaining stable, consumers should monitor hedging options to counteract possible price increases. The decline in refining margins, particularly in the USGC and Rotterdam, may affect overall operational costs, necessitating a review of procurement strategies to optimize expenses.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish positioning from managed money and bearish news sentiment. Key driving factors include a stable global economic growth forecast of 3.1% and a consistent demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d in 2026. The balance of supply and demand remains tight, with DoC crude demand expected to rise, although inventory levels are higher than the five-year average. Analysts should keep an eye on the forward curves, which are indicating stronger backwardation, and the implications of the $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread, which reflects ongoing market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/s