Crude spent the week getting talked lower, settling at $84.88 for its lowest close since April 17 and sliding to $84.39 while Brent printed $86.89, its weakest since March 5 — and it did it on words, not barrels, because Iran's foreign minister calling the MOU "never closer" and Trump reportedly approving the draft was enough to bleed a $15-plus war premium out of a market that is still, physically, drum-tight. Commercial crude sits at 426.5 MMbbl, roughly 5% under the five-year, the SPR has bled to 349.2 on a seventh straight draw, and yet the screen is pricing a clean Hormuz reopening that hasn't been signed, ratified, or even agreed on the elements — with Pakistan mediating and the whole thing waiting on Iran's leadership. That gap, between a tape sprinting toward $76 and a physical market that never actually loosened, is the entire setup, and it cuts both ways: managed money is already gutted ~25%, so there's almost no long-side fuel to cushion a snap-back, while 433 oil rigs (a seventh straight build) and an EIA production path to 14.2 Mb/d by 2027 quietly stack weight on the other side. Where it goes is a weekend coin-flip with fat tails — a signed deal walks us down $81.29 then $76.26 (J.P. Morgan's ~$60 lurking if peace holds), a talks stumble snaps the premium straight back to $91–$108 as shorts scramble to cover, and a collapse that puts energy infrastructure back on the table re-arms the $120 physical anchor with Rystad's $150 still in the tail. The move that matters this week probably happens while the market is closed, so size for the gap, not the grind. Supposedly the deal is in the books and crude is struggling to stay above 80 - I am still skeptical on the deal
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-24 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are feeling the pinch, closing at $84.88, the lowest since April, largely influenced by easing Mideast tensions and speculative chatter rather than actual supply changes. With commercial crude inventories at 426.5 MMbbl—5% below the five-year average—and ongoing production increases, the market seems torn. A potential agreement to ease tensions could push prices down to $76, while a lack of resolution might spike them back to $91-$108. Watch for developments over the weekend; they could flip the script!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$77.08
$0.82
WTI:
$73.21
$0.65
Spread:
$3.87
(Brent premium of $3.87)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
96,228
Weekly Change:
1,503
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$69.24
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $77.78
MA(20): $85.0
Current Price is 69.24, 9 day MA 77.78, 20 day MA 85.0
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -6.2034
Signal: -4.5346
Days since crossover: 23
MACD crossed the line 23 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 25.2
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 25.2 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 13,669
Avg (20d): 232,983
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.71
%D: 2.99
Stochastic %K: 0.71, %D: 2.99. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.09
+DI: 14.42
-DI: 33.46
ADX: 22.09 (+DI: 14.42, -DI: 33.46). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.29
Williams %R: -99.29 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT LOWER
Upper: 100.42
Middle: 85.0
Lower: 69.58
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 100.42, Middle: 85.0, Lower: 69.58
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13819.0 | 13806.0 | 13431.0 | 12945.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5570.0 | 5134.0 | 5504.0 | 6378.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4669.0 | 4327.0 | 4361.0 | 4506.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17111.0 | 17192.0 | 16862.0 | 16591.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 901.0 | 807.0 | 1143.0 | 1872.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 412134.0 | 418222.0 | 420942.0 | 443164.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1533511.0 | 1543113.0 | 1637180.0 | 1638003.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 216299.0 | 214235.0 | 230013.0 | 227943.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 106116.0 | 103052.0 | 109398.0 | 113668.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $77.08, change $-0.82. WTI crude (AUG 26) settled at $73.21, change $-0.65. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.87 (Brent premium of $3.87). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$77.08
0.82
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$73.21
0.65
(AUG 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.87
Brent premium of $3.87
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
-
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation.
• Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts.
• Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
-
• The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
• China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
• India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
• Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
-
• OECD demand is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
-
• Key growth drivers include Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• NGLs and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d.
• Recent DoC crude production trends indicate a decrease of 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures.
-
• In the US Gulf Coast, losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel as increased availability of heavy crude supplies weighed on fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
• In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline, followed by fuel oil.
• In Singapore, the decline was driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by various factors.
-
• VLCC spot freight rates began in 2026 with exceptionally strong performance, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route up by 64%, y-o-y.
• Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions in the Atlantic basin, with USGC-to-Europe rates up by 12%, m-o-m.
• Aframax spot freight rates also experienced strong performance, with cross-Med Aframax rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
• In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed strong performance, led by East of Suez, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.
-
• US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
• In December, crude imports into OECD Europe declined, m-o-m, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan.
• Japan's crude imports surged, averaging just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
• India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, m-o-m.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.
-
• OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which was 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
• In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment at 43.0 mb/d.
-
• The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged at 43.6 mb/d.
• World oil demand for 2026 is projected at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is forecast at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a DoC requirement gap of 42.5 mb/d for 2026.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.1 | 43.6 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-16
Managed Money
96,228
Change: +1,503
4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,716
Change: +12,774
18.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-544,055
Change: -7,387
-27.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,007,709
Change: 1,074
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,007,709 contracts (+1,074)
Managed Money Net Position: 96,228 contracts (4.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +1,503 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,716 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -544,055 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2026-06-24 23:52:32
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Renewable Fuel Standards Changes Expected to Bolster Ag Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.51
Daily:
0.1 (0.1%)
Weekly:
1.42 (1.42%)
US_10Y
4.4
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.1%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.5%)
SP500
7358.22
Daily:
-7.24 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-61.88 (-0.83%)
VIX
18.63
Daily:
-0.86 (-4.41%)
Weekly:
0.19 (1.03%)
GOLD
3986.2
Daily:
-143.7 (-3.48%)
Weekly:
-372.7 (-8.55%)
COPPER
5.99
Daily:
-0.15 (-2.49%)
Weekly:
-0.49 (-7.61%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$69.24
Closest Support:
$69.05
0.27% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$80.51
16.28% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$69.05
Support
0.236
$80.51
Resistance
0.382
$87.61
0.5
$93.34
0.618
$99.07
0.786
$107.23
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$130.84
1.618
$147.65
2.0
$166.21
2.618
$196.23
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$70.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-24 23:52:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.19%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | $70.48 | $64.55 | $76.4 |
| 2026-06-26 | $70.63 | $64.71 | $76.55 |
| 2026-06-27 | $70.37 | $64.45 | $76.29 |
| 2026-06-28 | $70.2 | $64.28 | $76.12 |
| 2026-06-29 | $69.91 | $63.99 | $75.83 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.19% for the next trading day (2026-06-25), reaching $70.48.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-25 and 2026-06-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
With the bullish sentiment in the managed money positioning, traders should monitor the $64.73 for Brent and $60.26 for WTI as potential support levels. The $4.47 Brent-WTI spread indicates that Brent is favored due to stronger global demand dynamics. However, the negative news sentiment (-0.700) suggests caution, as volatility could arise from geopolitical uncertainties and supply fluctuations. Traders should be alert for short-term opportunities or risks, particularly around the upcoming inventory reports that may affect price direction.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the balance of supply and demand with the DoC crude demand remaining at 43.0 mb/d for 2026. The decline in crude oil production by DoC countries could impact market prices positively if demand holds. Hedging strategies must account for current inventory levels, as OECD crude stocks are 1,363 mb, which is higher than the five-year average. This could lead to pricing pressures if demand does not increase as forecasted. Adjusting production plans in response to these dynamics will be crucial for maintaining profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI at $60.26 and Brent at $64.73. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and the negative sentiment surrounding crude oil. With product inventories increasing, consumers may face opportunities for procurement at favorable prices, but should remain vigilant regarding refining margins which are currently declining. Hedging against price volatility could be a prudent strategy in the current market environment.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a negative sentiment, despite some bullish positioning from managed money. The fundamental balance indicates stable demand growth at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, with supply from non-DoC countries also showing modest growth. The geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating refining margins present potential outlook shifts that analysts should monitor closely. The current market landscape suggests a cautious approach, as external factors may significantly impact price movements in the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.