Here's the whole market in one sentence: the screen says $70 and the barrels say $80-plus, and only one of them is going to be right. WTI cracked below $70 this week — its lowest since the war began, momentum firmly down, the crowded long (parked near the 95th percentile) actively flushing — so technically it looks settled. It isn't. The curve is still in steep backwardation, which is the market quietly admitting prompt barrels are worth more than deferred ones even while the front month sells off. The fundamentals back the barrels, not the screen: a ninth straight EIA crude draw, Cushing dipping below operational minimums (lowest total U.S. crude since 1984), the OPEC basket trading $5–8 over Brent above $80, ~35 tankers a day clearing Hormuz against 120–150 pre-war, and ~10 mmbpd still offline — of which roughly 1 mmbpd doesn't come back for 12 to 18 months. So watch the tape, not the noise: $72.95 is the anchor the market settles into while it waits, $68.48 then $61.64 are where the financial unwind overshoots to if it wants one more flush, and $81.29 is fair value with an unfilled gap sitting at $83–85 that gets taken out the moment the barrels win the argument. The financial market is short the physical market. That trade has a way of resolving all at once.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-25 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is currently caught in a tug-of-war: while WTI dipped below $70, the physical market whispers of $80-plus barrels, driven by consistent EIA draws, dipping Cushing inventories, and OPEC's bullish pricing. With a ninth consecutive crude draw and operational minimums reached, the market's backwardation hints at tighter supply. Watch for pivotal levels at $72.95 and potential overshoots to $68.48. As the market debates between financial signals and physical realities, clarity may emerge soon—stay tuned!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$73.74
$3.34
WTI:
$70.34
$2.87
Spread:
$3.4
(Brent premium of $3.40)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
96,228
Weekly Change:
1,503
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$70.62
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $76.01
MA(20): $84.15
Current Price is 70.62, 9 day MA 76.01, 20 day MA 84.15
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -6.3736
Signal: -4.8884
Days since crossover: 24
MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 26.63
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 26.63 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 10,326
Avg (20d): 230,839
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 3.83
%D: 3.17
Stochastic %K: 3.83, %D: 3.17. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.21
+DI: 14.21
-DI: 32.17
ADX: 23.21 (+DI: 14.21, -DI: 32.17). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -96.17
Williams %R: -96.17 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 100.49
Middle: 84.15
Lower: 67.82
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 100.49, Middle: 84.15, Lower: 67.82
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13819.0 | 13806.0 | 13431.0 | 12945.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5570.0 | 5134.0 | 5504.0 | 6378.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4669.0 | 4327.0 | 4361.0 | 4506.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17111.0 | 17192.0 | 16862.0 | 16591.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 901.0 | 807.0 | 1143.0 | 1872.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 412134.0 | 418222.0 | 420942.0 | 443164.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1533511.0 | 1543113.0 | 1637180.0 | 1638003.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 216299.0 | 214235.0 | 230013.0 | 227943.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 106116.0 | 103052.0 | 109398.0 | 113668.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $73.74, change $-3.34. WTI crude (AUG 26) settled at $70.34, change $-2.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.4 (Brent premium of $3.40). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$73.74
3.34
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$70.34
2.87
(AUG 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.4
Brent premium of $3.40
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively stable, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key economic growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are anticipated to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Increase of 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Growth of about 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is for a growth of 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, reaching an average of 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses driven by increased heavy crude supply impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop
- Singapore: Margins fell due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, amid weather disruptions
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates increased, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. Key regional trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Decline in crude imports, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average. Key stock movements include:
- Crude stocks: Fell by 2.1 mb to 1,363 mb
- Product stocks: Increased by 8.6 mb to 1,481 mb
- Days of forward cover: Rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase. The supply-demand balance is summarized in the following table:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement highlights the need for continued cooperation among participating countries to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-16
Managed Money
96,228
Change: +1,503
4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,716
Change: +12,774
18.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-544,055
Change: -7,387
-27.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,007,709
Change: 1,074
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,007,709 contracts (+1,074)
Managed Money Net Position: 96,228 contracts (4.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +1,503 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,716 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -544,055 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
66
Last Updated:
2026-06-25 23:52:26
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Renewable Fuel Standards Changes Expected to Bolster Ag Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.49
Daily:
-0.12 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
0.64 (0.63%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.72%)
SP500
7357.49
Daily:
-0.73 (-0.01%)
Weekly:
-143.09 (-1.91%)
VIX
18.89
Daily:
0.26 (1.4%)
Weekly:
2.49 (15.18%)
GOLD
4014.6
Daily:
24.3 (0.61%)
Weekly:
-209.5 (-4.96%)
COPPER
6.04
Daily:
0.09 (1.56%)
Weekly:
-0.34 (-5.31%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$70.62
Closest Support:
$69.63
1.4% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$80.96
14.64% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$69.63
Support
0.236
$80.96
Resistance
0.382
$87.97
0.5
$93.63
0.618
$99.29
0.786
$107.36
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$130.69
1.618
$147.29
2.0
$165.63
2.618
$195.29
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$71.92
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-25 23:52:28
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | $72.03 | $66.37 | $77.7 |
| 2026-06-27 | $71.69 | $66.02 | $77.35 |
| 2026-06-28 | $71.55 | $65.88 | $77.21 |
| 2026-06-29 | $71.26 | $65.59 | $76.92 |
| 2026-06-30 | $71.44 | $65.78 | $77.11 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-06-26), reaching $72.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-26 and 2026-06-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.700. This is reflected in the recent price movements where $62.31/b for the OPEC Reference Basket and $64.73/b for ICE Brent show a modest increase, but overall market sentiment remains negative. The Fibonacci levels suggest potential support around $60/b for WTI, while resistance could be seen near $65/b for Brent.
The Brent-WTI spread has increased, indicating a premium of $4.47/b. This reflects the ongoing disparities in global versus U.S. supply/demand dynamics, presenting short-term trading opportunities as the market adjusts to geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions.
Traders should monitor the risk factors associated with speculative positioning, as the managed money net position has increased, suggesting potential volatility in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Given the balance of supply and demand, with global oil demand forecasted to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with these forecasts. The recent decrease in crude oil production by OPEC countries, down by 439 tb/d, suggests potential tightening in the market, which may support prices moving forward.
Inventory levels have risen, with OECD commercial stocks up by 6.5 mb m-o-m. This could impact hedging strategies, as higher inventories may suppress prices in the short term. Producers should also be aware of the bearish market sentiment which could influence operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI trading around $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The current risk of supply disruptions, particularly from geopolitical tensions, could lead to increased procurement costs.
The strong performance in the tanker market, with VLCC rates up by 64% y-o-y, indicates potential supply reliability risks that could affect transportation costs. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of these fluctuations.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.700. The fundamentals indicate a stable demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d for 2026, while supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market.
The increase in managed money net positions suggests a potential bullish shift, despite the current bearish sentiment. Analysts should closely monitor strategies related to production and inventory management as market conditions evolve, particularly in light of the strong tanker market performance and the implications of rising freight rates.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific recommendations.