Here's the whole market in one sentence: the screen says $70 and the barrels say $80-plus, and only one of them is going to be right. WTI cracked below $70 this week — its lowest since the war began, momentum firmly down, the crowded long (parked near the 95th percentile) actively flushing — so technically it looks settled. It isn't. The curve is still in steep backwardation, which is the market quietly admitting prompt barrels are worth more than deferred ones even while the front month sells off. The fundamentals back the barrels, not the screen: a ninth straight EIA crude draw, Cushing dipping below operational minimums (lowest total U.S. crude since 1984), the OPEC basket trading $5–8 over Brent above $80, ~35 tankers a day clearing Hormuz against 120–150 pre-war, and ~10 mmbpd still offline — of which roughly 1 mmbpd doesn't come back for 12 to 18 months. So watch the tape, not the noise: $72.95 is the anchor the market settles into while it waits, $68.48 then $61.64 are where the financial unwind overshoots to if it wants one more flush, and $81.29 is fair value with an unfilled gap sitting at $83–85 that gets taken out the moment the barrels win the argument. The financial market is short the physical market. That trade has a way of resolving all at once.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-26 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently in a tug-of-war between market pricing and physical realities. Despite WTI dipping below $70, fundamentals suggest a different narrative, with a ninth consecutive EIA crude draw and Cushing stocks hitting lows not seen since 1984. While the market grapples with an oversupply narrative from increased Hormuz shipments, backwardation signals that prompt barrels are still valued higher. Watch for potential price recovery towards $81.29 as the physical market asserts its dominance. Keep an eye on technical support levels around $72.95, $68.48, and $61.64 for possible trading ideas.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$75.26
$1.52
WTI:
$71.92
$1.58
Spread:
$3.34
(Brent premium of $3.34)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
82,872
Weekly Change:
13,356
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$70.24
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $74.52
MA(20): $83.29
Current Price is 70.24, 9 day MA 74.52, 20 day MA 83.29
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -6.4534
Signal: -5.1848
Days since crossover: 25
MACD crossed the line 25 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 27.94
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 27.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 222,826
Avg (20d): 241,110
Ratio: 0.92
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 6.24
%D: 6.77
Stochastic %K: 6.24, %D: 6.77. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.56
+DI: 13.1
-DI: 31.16
ADX: 24.56 (+DI: 13.1, -DI: 31.16). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.76
Williams %R: -93.76 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 100.36
Middle: 83.29
Lower: 66.22
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 100.36, Middle: 83.29, Lower: 66.22
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13819.0 | 13806.0 | 13431.0 | 12945.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5570.0 | 5134.0 | 5504.0 | 6378.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4669.0 | 4327.0 | 4361.0 | 4506.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17111.0 | 17192.0 | 16862.0 | 16591.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 901.0 | 807.0 | 1143.0 | 1872.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 412134.0 | 418222.0 | 420942.0 | 443164.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1533511.0 | 1543113.0 | 1637180.0 | 1638003.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 216299.0 | 214235.0 | 230013.0 | 227943.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 106116.0 | 103052.0 | 109398.0 | 113668.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $75.26, change $+1.52. WTI crude (AUG 26) settled at $71.92, change $+1.58. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.34 (Brent premium of $3.34). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$75.26
1.52
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$71.92
1.58
(AUG 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.34
Brent premium of $3.34
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent-WTI spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's economic growth is projected at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. China's growth is expected to remain at 4.5%, while India is forecasted to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's growth is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's growth forecasts are 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, reaching 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were noted in the bottom section of the barrel, while in Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also saw a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest levels for the month in a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Crude exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d to average 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa. In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, while China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. In 2027, the demand for DoC crude is projected to be 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates that the DoC requirement for 2026 is 43.0 mb/d, while the non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a significant gap that highlights the need for strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-23
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,911,877 contracts (-95,832)
Managed Money Net Position: 82,872 contracts (4.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -13,356 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,876 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -531,482 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
57
Last Updated:
2026-06-26 23:52:33
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Canadian Gas Consumption Hits Record in First Quarter — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.37
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
0.35 (0.34%)
US_10Y
4.37
Daily:
-0.08 (-1.77%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-2.17%)
SP500
7354.02
Daily:
-3.47 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
-118.77 (-1.59%)
VIX
18.41
Daily:
-0.48 (-2.54%)
Weekly:
1.13 (6.54%)
GOLD
4103.0
Daily:
72.5 (1.8%)
Weekly:
-78.9 (-1.89%)
COPPER
6.2
Daily:
0.13 (2.09%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.5%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$70.24
Closest Support:
$68.56
2.39% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$80.14
14.09% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$68.56
Support
0.236
$80.14
Resistance
0.382
$87.3
0.5
$93.09
0.618
$98.89
0.786
$107.13
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$130.98
1.618
$147.96
2.0
$166.7
2.618
$197.03
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$71.92
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-26 23:52:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | $72.03 | $66.37 | $77.7 |
| 2026-06-27 | $71.69 | $66.02 | $77.35 |
| 2026-06-28 | $71.55 | $65.89 | $77.21 |
| 2026-06-29 | $71.26 | $65.6 | $76.93 |
| 2026-06-30 | $71.45 | $65.78 | $77.11 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2026-06-26), reaching $72.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-26 and 2026-06-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a modest increase in the OPEC Reference Basket to an average of $62.31/b. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.47/b, indicating potential volatility driven by supply dynamics and geopolitical concerns.
Traders should monitor the Fibonacci levels around $60 for WTI as potential support, with resistance levels near $65. The bullish sentiment from speculators, as indicated by the increase in net long positions, suggests that short-term opportunities may arise, but caution is warranted given the overall market sentiment score of -0.700.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude oil production from OPEC members, with a decrease of 439 tb/d, may provide a tighter market that supports prices. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly to capitalize on potential price increases.
With OECD commercial inventories rising by 6.5 mb, there is a need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate price fluctuations. The current market sentiment reflects a cautious outlook, which could impact operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The recent price trends indicate potential input cost fluctuations for crude oil, particularly with WTI averaging $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. Consumers should prepare for possible price increases, especially given the negative sentiment surrounding supply disruptions.
Attention should also be paid to supply reliability as geopolitical tensions may impact availability. Strategic procurement and hedging could be beneficial in managing costs amidst these uncertainties.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and bullish positioning from speculators. The balance of supply and demand remains tight, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026.
Key driving factors include inventory levels and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in market sentiment and positioning, which could indicate potential price corrections or opportunities in the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.