WTI closed Monday at $70.75, Brent at $73.91 — and honestly, a $1.50 to $2.00 gain on a day when the U.S. and Iran were literally trading strikes in the Middle East should give you pause. That is not a strong bid. That is a market that looked at active hostilities in the Persian Gulf and mostly shrugged — which tells you how much financial selling pressure is still sitting on top of this tape. The crowded long is still flushing, the peace narrative is not dead, and the screen is winning the short-term argument. None of that changes the fundamental picture underneath: physical cargos are still clearing $5 to $25 above WTI, the OPEC basket is still north of $80, Cushing is still below operational minimums, and nine straight commercial draws do not lie. The financial market is selling a story the barrels are refusing to confirm. Our next stop is $72.95 — that is the anchor the market settles into before it decides what comes next. Clear that level with conviction and the path to the $83 to $85 gap fill opens up. The financial market will correct upward before this is over. The barrels have always been the more honest storyteller.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-29 23:52
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices are currently teetering, with WTI at $70.75 and Brent at $73.91, reflecting a market that remains cautious despite escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Financial selling pressure continues, even as physical cargos are trading higher than WTI and Cushing inventories remain low. The market sentiment suggests that a break above $72.95 could lead to a gap fill towards $83-$85. However, the bearish undertone persists until the market can confirm stronger demand or geopolitical stability.
**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- WTI: $70.75, Brent: $73.91.
- OPEC basket prices above $80.
- Nine consecutive commercial draws in crude inventories.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$71.99
$3.27
WTI:
$69.23
$2.69
Spread:
$2.76
(Brent premium of $2.76)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
82,872
Weekly Change:
13,356
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$70.48
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $73.27
MA(20): $82.39
Current Price is 70.48, 9 day MA 73.27, 20 day MA 82.39
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -6.5667
Signal: -5.4741
Days since crossover: 26
MACD crossed the line 26 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 29.87
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 29.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,780
Avg (20d): 229,383
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 7.66
%D: 7.17
Stochastic %K: 7.66, %D: 7.17. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 25.72
+DI: 12.77
-DI: 30.37
ADX: 25.72 (+DI: 12.77, -DI: 30.37). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -92.34
Williams %R: -92.34 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 100.37
Middle: 82.39
Lower: 64.42
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 100.37, Middle: 82.39, Lower: 64.42
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13819.0 | 13806.0 | 13431.0 | 12945.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5570.0 | 5134.0 | 5504.0 | 6378.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4669.0 | 4327.0 | 4361.0 | 4506.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17111.0 | 17192.0 | 16862.0 | 16591.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 901.0 | 807.0 | 1143.0 | 1872.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 412134.0 | 418222.0 | 420942.0 | 443164.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1533511.0 | 1543113.0 | 1637180.0 | 1638003.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 216299.0 | 214235.0 | 230013.0 | 227943.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 106116.0 | 103052.0 | 109398.0 | 113668.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $71.99, change $-3.27. WTI crude (AUG 26) settled at $69.23, change $-2.69. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.76 (Brent premium of $2.76). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$71.99
3.27
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$69.23
2.69
(AUG 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.76
Brent premium of $2.76
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract saw a rise of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast is slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's economic growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth remains at 0.9%, and China's at 4.5% for both years. India's growth is forecasted at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's economic growth is projected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore experienced a similar trend, driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high level, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates experienced strong performance, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates were led by East of Suez, with significant increases noted in both the Middle East-to-East and Mediterranean routes.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous months. In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December data show OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, which is 1.8 days higher than December 2024.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The demand for 2027 also remains at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the forecasted years:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates careful monitoring and strategic production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement for 2026 highlights the need for continued cooperation among participating countries to meet the growing demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-23
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,911,877 contracts (-95,832)
Managed Money Net Position: 82,872 contracts (4.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -13,356 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,876 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -531,482 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
22
Last Updated:
2026-06-29 23:52:11
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.32
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
US_10Y
4.37
Daily:
0.0 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-2.65%)
SP500
7440.43
Daily:
86.41 (1.18%)
Weekly:
74.97 (1.02%)
VIX
17.65
Daily:
-0.76 (-4.13%)
Weekly:
-1.84 (-9.44%)
GOLD
3976.0
Daily:
-102.7 (-2.52%)
Weekly:
-153.9 (-3.73%)
COPPER
6.18
Daily:
0.04 (0.6%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.61%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$70.48
Closest Support:
$68.56
2.72% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$80.14
13.71% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$68.56
Support
0.236
$80.14
Resistance
0.382
$87.3
0.5
$93.09
0.618
$98.89
0.786
$107.13
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$130.98
1.618
$147.96
2.0
$166.7
2.618
$197.03
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$70.75
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-29 23:52:13
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.05%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $70.72 | $65.18 | $76.25 |
| 2026-07-01 | $70.27 | $64.73 | $75.8 |
| 2026-07-02 | $70.48 | $64.95 | $76.02 |
| 2026-07-03 | $70.21 | $64.67 | $75.75 |
| 2026-07-04 | $70.36 | $64.82 | $75.9 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2026-06-30), reaching $70.72.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-30 and 2026-07-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest bullish sentiment among traders, as indicated by the increase in managed money net positions, despite a slight reduction in open interest. The $62.31 average OPEC Reference Basket price reflects stability, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the recent fluctuations in Brent and WTI prices. The $4.47 Brent-WTI spread indicates a neutral outlook, suggesting that while Brent remains relatively stronger, it may not sustain significant growth without further geopolitical support or changes in demand dynamics.
Key support levels for WTI are around $60.00, while resistance can be tested at $64.00. Traders should watch for any shifts in CFTC positioning, as extreme positioning could signal potential market reversals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a forecasted growth in global oil demand of 1.4 mb/d in 2026, producers should focus on optimizing production strategies to meet this demand. The recent decline in crude oil production from OPEC countries may present an opportunity for non-OPEC producers to capture market share.
Additionally, the increase in OECD commercial oil inventories could impact pricing strategies. Producers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, especially with current market sentiment showing signs of weakening.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices hover around $60.26 for WTI and $64.73 for Brent. The decline in refining margins indicates that input costs may rise, affecting profitability in refining operations.
Given the geopolitical uncertainties and the recent surge in tanker freight rates, consumers must assess procurement strategies to hedge against supply reliability risks. Maintaining flexibility in sourcing and inventory management will be crucial as global demand dynamics shift.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by neutral sentiment, with mixed signals from technical indicators and CFTC positioning. The bullish sentiment among managed money traders suggests potential upward price movement, but caution is warranted due to the decline in refining margins and rising inventories.
Key driving factors include stable global economic growth rates, particularly in non-OECD countries, and the ongoing adjustments in production levels by OPEC. Analysts should closely monitor these trends, as they could significantly impact supply and demand fundamentals moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.