WTI closed Monday at $70.75, Brent at $73.91 — and honestly, a $1.50 to $2.00 gain on a day when the U.S. and Iran were literally trading strikes in the Middle East should give you pause. That is not a strong bid. That is a market that looked at active hostilities in the Persian Gulf and mostly shrugged — which tells you how much financial selling pressure is still sitting on top of this tape. The crowded long is still flushing, the peace narrative is not dead, and the screen is winning the short-term argument. None of that changes the fundamental picture underneath: physical cargos are still clearing $5 to $25 above WTI, the OPEC basket is still north of $80, Cushing is still below operational minimums, and nine straight commercial draws do not lie. The financial market is selling a story the barrels are refusing to confirm. Our next stop is $72.95 — that is the anchor the market settles into before it decides what comes next. Clear that level with conviction and the path to the $83 to $85 gap fill opens up. The financial market will correct upward before this is over. The barrels have always been the more honest storyteller.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-06-30 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil markets have shown resilience, with WTI closing at $70.75 and Brent at $73.91, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This modest gain indicates ongoing financial selling pressure, with a crowded long position continuing to flush. While physical cargoes are trading above WTI and commercial draws persist, the financial narrative diverges from market fundamentals. Watch for a potential breakout above $72.95, which could open the door to $83-$85. The barrels are telling a more honest story than the headlines suggest.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$73.15
$1.16
WTI:
$70.75
$1.52
Spread:
$2.4
(Brent premium of $2.40)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
82,872
Weekly Change:
13,356
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$69.82
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $72.61
MA(20): $81.29
Current Price is 69.82, 9 day MA 72.61, 20 day MA 81.29
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -6.5535
Signal: -5.6865
Days since crossover: 27
MACD crossed the line 27 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 29.55
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 29.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,223
Avg (20d): 221,778
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 5.02
%D: 5.42
Stochastic %K: 5.02, %D: 5.42. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 26.79
+DI: 12.49
-DI: 29.71
ADX: 26.79 (+DI: 12.49, -DI: 29.71). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -94.98
Williams %R: -94.98 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 99.44
Middle: 81.29
Lower: 63.14
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 99.44, Middle: 81.29, Lower: 63.14
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13819.0 | 13806.0 | 13431.0 | 12945.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5570.0 | 5134.0 | 5504.0 | 6378.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4669.0 | 4327.0 | 4361.0 | 4506.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17111.0 | 17192.0 | 16862.0 | 16591.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 901.0 | 807.0 | 1143.0 | 1872.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 412134.0 | 418222.0 | 420942.0 | 443164.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1533511.0 | 1543113.0 | 1637180.0 | 1638003.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 216299.0 | 214235.0 | 230013.0 | 227943.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 106116.0 | 103052.0 | 109398.0 | 113668.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $73.15, change $+1.16. WTI crude (AUG 26) settled at $70.75, change $+1.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.4 (Brent premium of $2.40). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$73.15
1.16
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$70.75
1.52
(AUG 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$2.4
Brent premium of $2.40
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread widened by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. Eurozone growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years, and Japan's forecasts hold at 0.9%. China's growth is projected at 4.5% for both years, while India is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's economic growth is projected at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these economic forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from previous assessments. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD increasing by around 1.2 mb/d.
Key demand drivers include economic growth in emerging markets, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and environmental policies.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline, while Singapore experienced a similar trend driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates saw a significant rise, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching the highest level for the month in a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates also increased due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates experienced strong performance, reaching a 10-year high for the month.
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed robust performance, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which was up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous months, while imports in India declined by 5%, m-o-m, to average 1.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.8 days of forward cover, which is 1.8 days higher than December 2024.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also projected at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting similar growth.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, necessitating a strategic outlook for production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement highlights the need for careful management of production levels to align with projected demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-23
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,911,877 contracts (-95,832)
Managed Money Net Position: 82,872 contracts (4.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -13,356 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,876 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -531,482 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
19
Last Updated:
2026-06-30 23:53:11
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.35
Daily:
0.24 (0.23%)
Weekly:
-0.26 (-0.26%)
US_10Y
4.42
Daily:
0.05 (1.05%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.67%)
SP500
7499.36
Daily:
58.93 (0.79%)
Weekly:
141.14 (1.92%)
VIX
16.45
Daily:
-1.2 (-6.8%)
Weekly:
-2.18 (-11.7%)
GOLD
3991.5
Daily:
-30.8 (-0.77%)
Weekly:
1.2 (0.03%)
COPPER
6.14
Daily:
0.05 (0.78%)
Weekly:
0.2 (3.4%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$69.82
Closest Support:
$68.56
1.8% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$80.14
14.78% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$68.56
Support
0.236
$80.14
Resistance
0.382
$87.3
0.5
$93.09
0.618
$98.89
0.786
$107.13
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$130.98
1.618
$147.96
2.0
$166.7
2.618
$197.03
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$69.5
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-30 23:53:13
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.58%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | $69.1 | $64.51 | $73.68 |
| 2026-07-02 | $69.38 | $64.8 | $73.96 |
| 2026-07-03 | $69.08 | $64.5 | $73.66 |
| 2026-07-04 | $69.23 | $64.65 | $73.82 |
| 2026-07-05 | $69.11 | $64.53 | $73.7 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.58% for the next trading day (2026-07-01), reaching $69.10.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-07-01 and 2026-07-05.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest bullish sentiment despite some weakening observed in managed money positioning. The Brent-WTI spread at $2.40 indicates that global supply/demand dynamics are favoring Brent, suggesting potential for support levels around $60 for WTI. Traders should monitor the risk factors related to geopolitical events and inventory levels, as these could introduce volatility. The convergence of strong backwardation in forward curves may present short-term opportunities, particularly if prices stabilize above recent highs.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current balance of supply and demand indicates a stable demand for DoC crude, projected at 43.0 mb/d in 2026. Producers should consider adjusting production planning in response to hedging strategies that align with the anticipated growth in non-DoC liquids production. The increase in inventories, particularly product stocks, could influence pricing strategies. Furthermore, the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on supply reliability should not be underestimated.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices showing upward trends. The supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories necessitate strategic procurement planning. With $64.73 for Brent and $60.26 for WTI, companies may want to explore hedging options to mitigate exposure to rising costs, especially in light of seasonal demand pressures impacting refining margins.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish fundamentals and bearish technicals. Key drivers include stable global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d in 2026, coupled with a modest increase in non-DoC liquids production. Analysts should note the ML forecasts indicating potential price increases, while also considering the risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating inventory levels that could shift market outlooks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.