WTI closed Monday at $70.75, Brent at $73.91 — and honestly, a $1.50 to $2.00 gain on a day when the U.S. and Iran were literally trading strikes in the Middle East should give you pause. That is not a strong bid. That is a market that looked at active hostilities in the Persian Gulf and mostly shrugged — which tells you how much financial selling pressure is still sitting on top of this tape. The crowded long is still flushing, the peace narrative is not dead, and the screen is winning the short-term argument. None of that changes the fundamental picture underneath: physical cargos are still clearing $5 to $25 above WTI, the OPEC basket is still north of $80, Cushing is still below operational minimums, and nine straight commercial draws do not lie. The financial market is selling a story the barrels are refusing to confirm. Our next stop is $72.95 — that is the anchor the market settles into before it decides what comes next. Clear that level with conviction and the path to the $83 to $85 gap fill opens up. The financial market will correct upward before this is over. The barrels have always been the more honest storyteller.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-07-01 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices saw modest gains, with WTI closing at $70.75 and Brent at $73.91, despite heightened tensions in the Middle East—a sign of underlying financial pressure. Physical cargoes remain strong, trading above WTI, while nine consecutive commercial draws support the bullish narrative. However, with geopolitical risks easing and a crowded long position, the market may face challenges ahead. Watch for a decisive move above $72.95, which could open the path to $83-$85, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$72.92
$0.23
WTI:
$69.5
$1.25
Spread:
$3.42
(Brent premium of $3.42)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
82,872
Weekly Change:
13,356
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$67.7
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $71.56
MA(20): $79.97
Current Price is 67.7, 9 day MA 71.56, 20 day MA 79.97
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -6.6741
Signal: -5.8881
Days since crossover: 28
MACD crossed the line 28 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: 27.6
Category: OVERSOLD
RSI is 27.6 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 10,333
Avg (20d): 219,790
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.54
%D: 4.34
Stochastic %K: 0.54, %D: 4.34. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 27.74
+DI: 12.53
-DI: 30.91
ADX: 27.74 (+DI: 12.53, -DI: 30.91). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.46
Williams %R: -99.46 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 98.13
Middle: 79.97
Lower: 61.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 98.13, Middle: 79.97, Lower: 61.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13810.0 | 13819.0 | 13435.0 | 13011.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5279.0 | 5570.0 | 5944.0 | 6834.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4008.0 | 4669.0 | 4270.0 | 3535.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 17196.0 | 17111.0 | 16987.0 | 16642.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1271.0 | 901.0 | 1674.0 | 3299.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 408359.0 | 412134.0 | 415106.0 | 439890.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1527225.0 | 1533511.0 | 1633245.0 | 1635609.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 213966.0 | 216299.0 | 227938.0 | 227751.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 108599.0 | 106116.0 | 105332.0 | 112238.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (AUG 26) settled at $72.92, change $-0.23. WTI crude (AUG 26) settled at $69.5, change $-1.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.42 (Brent premium of $3.42). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$72.92
0.23
(AUG 26)
WTI Crude
$69.5
1.25
(AUG 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.42
Brent premium of $3.42
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract saw a rise of $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable, projected at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2.0% for 2027. In the Eurozone, growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth is projected at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. China's growth forecast remains at 4.5% for both years, while India's is at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth forecast is stable at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, and Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 is unchanged at 1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y). The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d y-o-y in 2026, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This trend is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d y-o-y in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d, with similar growth expected in 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses were primarily from the bottom section of the barrel, influenced by increased heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also saw a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, reaching the highest levels in over a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax spot freight rates reached a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates increased, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average. US crude exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d m-o-m to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa. Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb m-o-m to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y. The days of forward cover for OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days m-o-m, reaching 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase from 2026. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the upcoming years:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant gap between world demand and non-DoC supply, necessitating a robust strategy for DoC production to meet the increasing demand. This gap underscores the importance of strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-06-23
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-06-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,911,877 contracts (-95,832)
Managed Money Net Position: 82,872 contracts (4.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -13,356 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 378,876 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -531,482 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
33
Last Updated:
2026-07-01 23:53:15
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Rises Amid Renewed Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.38
Daily:
0.19 (0.18%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
US_10Y
4.47
Daily:
0.1 (2.36%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.4%)
SP500
7483.23
Daily:
-16.13 (-0.22%)
Weekly:
125.74 (1.71%)
VIX
16.59
Daily:
0.14 (0.85%)
Weekly:
-2.3 (-12.18%)
GOLD
4079.4
Daily:
56.5 (1.4%)
Weekly:
48.9 (1.21%)
COPPER
6.17
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.41%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.59%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$67.7
Closest Support:
$67.56
0.21% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$79.38
17.25% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$67.56
Support
0.236
$79.38
Resistance
0.382
$86.69
0.5
$92.59
0.618
$98.5
0.786
$106.92
1.0
$117.63
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$131.25
1.618
$148.57
2.0
$167.7
2.618
$198.64
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$68.58
Forecast Generated:
2026-07-01 23:53:18
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.45%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | $68.89 | $64.32 | $73.46 |
| 2026-07-03 | $68.61 | $64.05 | $73.18 |
| 2026-07-04 | $68.76 | $64.19 | $73.33 |
| 2026-07-05 | $68.64 | $64.07 | $73.2 |
| 2026-07-06 | $68.53 | $63.96 | $73.09 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.45% for the next trading day (2026-07-02), reaching $68.89.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-07-02 and 2026-07-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics present bullish sentiment with significant price movements. The $62.31/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the $64.73/b average for ICE Brent indicate upward momentum. The $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread suggests a tightening supply for Brent relative to WTI, which could lead to support levels around the recent highs. Traders should monitor volatility as the risk of geopolitical disruptions remains high, particularly with the bullish positioning of hedge funds. Short-term opportunities may arise from potential price corrections if the managed money positions shift significantly.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the balance of supply and demand indicating a stable demand for DoC crude at 43.0 mb/d, producers should consider adjusting production plans to optimize output in line with market expectations. The decrease in crude oil production by DoC countries highlights inventory pressures that could affect pricing. Given the $60.26/b average for WTI, hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate potential price fluctuations, particularly with a positive market sentiment bolstered by recent inventory data.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices hover around $60.26/b for WTI and $64.73/b for Brent. The strong demand in key markets like China and India, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, could impact supply reliability. Refineries facing declining margins should assess procurement strategies to hedge against rising costs. The current inventory levels suggest a mixed outlook, with crude stocks falling but product stocks rising, necessitating careful monitoring of market trends.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market exhibits a bullish outlook driven by strong physical market fundamentals and increasing speculative positions. Key factors include stable global demand growth at approximately 1.4 mb/d, alongside tightening supply dynamics from DoC countries. The geopolitical landscape and weather disruptions further complicate the outlook, suggesting potential volatility ahead. Analysts should remain vigilant to shifts in market sentiment and positioning data, as these will be critical in forecasting price movements in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.