Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.3 BCFD
MA(9): $3.46
MA(20): $3.74
MACD: -0.1884
Signal: -0.1187
Days since crossover: 26
Value: 35.44
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 135,424
Avg (20d): 175,767
Ratio: 0.77
%K: 5.37
%D: 6.79
ADX: 23.44
+DI: 11.08
-DI: 24.64
Value: -94.63
Upper: 4.33
Middle: 3.74
Lower: 3.16
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 105.8 | 100.3 | 98.63 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 112.3 | 112.4 | 105.6 | 103.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.6 | 30.3 | 30.2 | 28.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.1 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 20.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 103.0 | 108.8 | 104.1 | 98.03 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 5.77 |
TTF prices increased to 11.901 EUR/MWh (+0.028). JKM prices remained stable to 12.462 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.561 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-20
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-20
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-20
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.901 |
| JUN 25 | 11.935 |
| JUL 25 | 12.003 |
| AUG 25 | 12.113 |
| SEP 25 | 12.221 |
| OCT 25 | 12.308 |
| NOV 25 | 12.383 |
| DEC 25 | 12.447 |
| JAN 26 | 12.464 |
| FEB 26 | 12.473 |
| MAR 26 | 12.307 |
| APR 26 | 11.307 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 12.462 |
| JUN 25 | 12.085 |
| JUL 25 | 12.100 |
| AUG 25 | 12.180 |
| SEP 25 | 12.275 |
| OCT 25 | 12.340 |
| NOV 25 | 12.430 |
| DEC 25 | 12.740 |
| JAN 26 | 12.790 |
| FEB 26 | 12.730 |
| MAR 26 | 12.365 |
| APR 26 | 11.490 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | $3.24 | $2.93 | $3.55 |
| 2025-04-19 | $3.26 | $2.95 | $3.57 |
| 2025-04-20 | $3.25 | $2.94 | $3.57 |
| 2025-04-21 | $3.26 | $2.95 | $3.57 |
| 2025-04-22 | $3.26 | $2.95 | $3.57 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral stance with potential price fluctuations. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.99 and resistance at 3.44. With the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline of 0.13%, traders should monitor the price range of 2.93 to 3.55 for short-term opportunities. Volatility may arise from the weather outlook showing low heating and cooling demand, suggesting limited immediate demand-driven price movement.
The fundamental balance is currently at 9.30 BCFD, showing an increase of 5.70, which may indicate a need for strategic adjustments in production planning. The neutral sentiment from news articles suggests cautious market conditions, impacting hedging strategies. Producers should consider the implications of low heating demand and the potential for fluctuating prices, as indicated by the ML forecast and weather patterns.
With the current neutral market sentiment and low heating demand, consumers can expect potential cost fluctuations in the short term. The weather outlook indicates low demand for both heating and cooling, which may stabilize supply reliability. However, procurement strategies should account for possible price movements within the range of 2.93 to 3.55 as indicated by the ML price forecast.
The current market picture reflects a neutral sentiment with key driving factors being a fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD and a weather outlook favoring low demand. The Fibonacci levels suggest caution, with support at 2.99 and resistance at 3.44. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in demand dynamics and geopolitical influences, particularly concerning crude oil, as they could alter the market sentiment significantly.