Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.3 BCFD
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.65
MACD: -0.2349
Signal: -0.1575
Days since crossover: 28
Value: 31.14
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,486
Avg (20d): 174,893
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 1.99
%D: 2.96
ADX: 26.68
+DI: 10.18
-DI: 28.2
Value: -98.01
Upper: 4.36
Middle: 3.65
Lower: 2.94
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 105.8 | 100.3 | 98.63 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 112.3 | 112.4 | 105.6 | 103.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.6 | 30.3 | 30.2 | 28.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.1 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 20.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 103.0 | 108.8 | 104.1 | 98.03 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 5.77 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.901 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices remained stable to 12.085 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.184 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-22
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-22
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-22
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.901 |
| JUN 25 | 11.935 |
| JUL 25 | 12.003 |
| AUG 25 | 12.113 |
| SEP 25 | 12.221 |
| OCT 25 | 12.308 |
| NOV 25 | 12.383 |
| DEC 25 | 12.447 |
| JAN 26 | 12.464 |
| FEB 26 | 12.473 |
| MAR 26 | 12.307 |
| APR 26 | 11.307 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 12.085 |
| JUL 25 | 12.100 |
| AUG 25 | 12.180 |
| SEP 25 | 12.275 |
| OCT 25 | 12.340 |
| NOV 25 | 12.430 |
| DEC 25 | 12.740 |
| JAN 26 | 12.790 |
| FEB 26 | 12.730 |
| MAR 26 | 12.365 |
| APR 26 | 11.490 |
| MAY 26 | 11.200 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | $3.02 | $2.73 | $3.31 |
| 2025-04-24 | $3.01 | $2.72 | $3.3 |
| 2025-04-25 | $3.0 | $2.71 | $3.29 |
| 2025-04-26 | $3.02 | $2.73 | $3.31 |
| 2025-04-27 | $3.02 | $2.73 | $3.31 |
The market is currently exhibiting a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. Traders should closely monitor the Fibonacci support level at 2.99 and the resistance level at 3.44. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.36%, with a range between 2.73 and 3.31. This presents short-term opportunities, but the potential for volatility remains due to mixed fundamental signals and weather impacts.
With a fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD and a notable increase of +5.70, producers may need to reassess their production levels in light of the current market dynamics. The neutral sentiment in news articles indicates mixed perceptions about future demand. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, particularly given the sentiment surrounding natural gas prices remaining low due to high output and mild forecasts.
The weather outlook indicates a predominance of cooling demand, particularly in the Northeast and South, which may lead to fluctuations in natural gas prices. Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in procurement strategies, especially as demand remains moderate and supply appears stable. The current price forecast suggests stability, but vigilance is necessary as market conditions evolve, especially with expected supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical factors.
The energy market is currently positioned in a neutral state, with technical indicators reflecting indecision. The strong fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD coupled with high output suggests a bearish influence on natural gas prices. However, the slight increase in ML price forecasts indicates potential short-term bullish sentiment. Analysts should focus on the interplay between cooling demand and production levels, as well as the geopolitical landscape, which could shift market dynamics significantly.