Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.3 BCFD
MA(9): $3.25
MA(20): $3.61
MACD: -0.2498
Signal: -0.1761
Days since crossover: 29
Value: 30.61
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 553
Avg (20d): 179,031
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 2.88
%D: 2.96
ADX: 28.35
+DI: 9.77
-DI: 28.22
Value: -97.12
Upper: 4.37
Middle: 3.61
Lower: 2.85
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 105.8 | 100.3 | 98.63 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 112.3 | 112.4 | 105.6 | 103.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.6 | 30.3 | 30.2 | 28.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.1 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 20.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 103.0 | 108.8 | 104.1 | 98.03 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 5.77 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.799 EUR/MWh (-0.102). JKM prices decreased to 11.770 USD/MMBtu (-0.315). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.029 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-23
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-23
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-23
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.799 |
| JUN 25 | 11.561 |
| JUL 25 | 11.623 |
| AUG 25 | 11.735 |
| SEP 25 | 11.841 |
| OCT 25 | 11.935 |
| NOV 25 | 12.013 |
| DEC 25 | 12.068 |
| JAN 26 | 12.073 |
| FEB 26 | 12.078 |
| MAR 26 | 11.927 |
| APR 26 | 11.005 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.770 |
| JUL 25 | 11.690 |
| AUG 25 | 11.795 |
| SEP 25 | 11.820 |
| OCT 25 | 11.920 |
| NOV 25 | 12.025 |
| DEC 25 | 12.275 |
| JAN 26 | 12.335 |
| FEB 26 | 12.285 |
| MAR 26 | 11.925 |
| APR 26 | 11.125 |
| MAY 26 | 10.845 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-24 | $3.01 | $2.72 | $3.3 |
| 2025-04-25 | $3.0 | $2.71 | $3.29 |
| 2025-04-26 | $3.02 | $2.73 | $3.31 |
| 2025-04-27 | $3.02 | $2.73 | $3.31 |
| 2025-04-28 | $3.02 | $2.73 | $3.31 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a -1/5 technical score. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.95, while resistance is at 3.41. Traders should monitor these levels closely as they present potential entry and exit points.
With the fundamental balance at 9.30 BCFD and a significant change of +5.70, there is a potential for increased volatility. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.33%, which could present short-term trading opportunities. However, caution is advised given the overall neutral sentiment.
Producers should note the neutral market sentiment, reflected in the -0.022 sentiment score. The fundamental balance indicates a considerable increase in supply, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning to avoid oversupply situations.
With rising LNG export flows contributing to demand, as highlighted in recent news, producers might consider implementing hedging strategies to protect against price fluctuations. Additionally, staying informed on geopolitical developments affecting crude oil, such as sanctions, will be crucial for strategic planning.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the increased fundamental balance and the cooling demand forecast. With low heating demand expected and moderate cooling demand, there may be opportunities to procure at lower prices.
However, the neutral sentiment in the market suggests that consumers should remain vigilant regarding supply reliability risks, particularly with the potential for fluctuating prices in the near term. It may be prudent to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
The current market landscape is characterized by a neutral sentiment, with a -0.022 sentiment score indicating a balanced outlook. The fundamental balance is notably high at 9.30 BCFD, suggesting that supply is currently outpacing demand.
Key driving factors include the cooling demand across various regions, which may lead to a shift in consumption patterns. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impact on crude oil prices, as well as the implications of the ML forecasts indicating a slight decline in prices.