Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.12
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: -0.2658
Signal: -0.2073
Days since crossover: 31
Value: 31.3
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 43,948
Avg (20d): 178,081
Ratio: 0.25
%K: 9.81
%D: 6.91
ADX: 31.76
+DI: 8.71
-DI: 28.44
Value: -90.19
Upper: 4.33
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 2.69
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.725 EUR/MWh (-0.034). JKM prices decreased to 11.505 USD/MMBtu (-0.155). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.220 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-25
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-25
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-25
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.725 |
| JUN 25 | 11.224 |
| JUL 25 | 11.266 |
| AUG 25 | 11.370 |
| SEP 25 | 11.478 |
| OCT 25 | 11.596 |
| NOV 25 | 11.715 |
| DEC 25 | 11.784 |
| JAN 26 | 11.783 |
| FEB 26 | 11.788 |
| MAR 26 | 11.626 |
| APR 26 | 10.759 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.505 |
| JUL 25 | 11.235 |
| AUG 25 | 11.380 |
| SEP 25 | 11.480 |
| OCT 25 | 11.615 |
| NOV 25 | 11.795 |
| DEC 25 | 12.055 |
| JAN 26 | 12.065 |
| FEB 26 | 12.120 |
| MAR 26 | 11.795 |
| APR 26 | 10.965 |
| MAY 26 | 10.695 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-25 | $2.93 | $2.64 | $3.22 |
| 2025-04-26 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-27 | $2.95 | $2.65 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.94 | $2.65 | $3.23 |
| 2025-04-29 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34. The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in supply at 15.60 BCFD (Change: +6.30), which may exert downward pressure on prices. The machine learning price forecast shows a potential decline of 0.04%, suggesting traders should be cautious of short-term volatility. Keep an eye on the weather outlook, as moderate heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest could support prices if temperatures drop unexpectedly.
The neutral market sentiment combined with the fundamental balance indicates a need for careful production planning. With natural gas prices at a five-month low due to mild weather and low demand, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue impacts. The risk of oversupply remains a concern, particularly as the market sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainties in global supply dynamics.
Consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations as natural gas prices have recently dropped to a five-month low. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand, which may stabilize prices in the short term. However, with a neutral market sentiment and low cooling demand expected, it may be prudent for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to ensure supply reliability.
The current market landscape is characterized by a neutral sentiment, with key drivers including a fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD and a weather outlook that favors heating demand. The machine learning forecast indicates a slight downward trend in prices, reflecting bearish pressures from oversupply concerns. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impact on supply dynamics, as these could shift the outlook significantly.