Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.12
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: -0.268
Signal: -0.2077
Days since crossover: 31
Value: 30.07
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 66,984
Avg (20d): 178,275
Ratio: 0.38
%K: 7.31
%D: 6.08
ADX: 31.76
+DI: 8.71
-DI: 28.44
Value: -92.69
Upper: 4.34
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 2.69
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.667 EUR/MWh (-0.058). JKM prices decreased to 11.270 USD/MMBtu (-0.235). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.397 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-26
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-26
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-26
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.667 |
| JUN 25 | 10.839 |
| JUL 25 | 10.891 |
| AUG 25 | 10.988 |
| SEP 25 | 11.086 |
| OCT 25 | 11.177 |
| NOV 25 | 11.296 |
| DEC 25 | 11.357 |
| JAN 26 | 11.339 |
| FEB 26 | 11.331 |
| MAR 26 | 11.162 |
| APR 26 | 10.334 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.270 |
| JUL 25 | 10.845 |
| AUG 25 | 10.960 |
| SEP 25 | 11.030 |
| OCT 25 | 11.135 |
| NOV 25 | 11.320 |
| DEC 25 | 11.540 |
| JAN 26 | 11.545 |
| FEB 26 | 11.550 |
| MAR 26 | 11.255 |
| APR 26 | 10.480 |
| MAY 26 | 10.225 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
| 2025-04-27 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-29 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
| 2025-04-30 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
The current market data presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a technical score of -1/5 indicating limited directional conviction. Key Fibonacci levels show support at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34, suggesting traders should monitor these levels closely for potential breakouts or reversals.
The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.68%, with a range between 2.67 and 3.25. This indicates a potential opportunity for short-term trading strategies, particularly if prices approach the support level.
However, the low volatility indicated by the neutral sentiment may limit significant price movements, necessitating caution in trading decisions.
Producers should take note of the fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD, which has seen a significant increase of +6.30. This suggests a growing supply that may impact pricing strategies and production planning.
With the neutral market sentiment, producers might consider hedging strategies to protect against potential price declines, especially given the current bearish sentiment in crude oil and the mixed demand outlook.
The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand across residential and commercial sectors, which could influence gas demand positively in the short term.
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to the current neutral market sentiment and the increase in supply. The expected moderate heating demand may lead to stable pricing in the short term, but it's essential to monitor developments closely.
With the ML forecast indicating a slight price increase, consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that capitalize on current pricing before potential upward shifts occur.
The market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a notable increase in supply reflected in the fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD. This is coupled with bearish sentiment in crude oil, which may affect cross-commodity correlations.
Weather patterns indicate moderate heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could support natural gas prices in the near term. However, the low cooling demand suggests limited upside potential for gas in warmer regions.
Overall, analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and weather forecasts as key drivers for market outlook shifts.