Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.07
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.2703
Signal: -0.2202
Days since crossover: 32
Value: 30.22
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 52
Avg (20d): 169,460
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 8.44
%D: 7.1
ADX: 33.31
+DI: 8.4
-DI: 27.74
Value: -91.56
Upper: 4.28
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 2.64
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.667 EUR/MWh (-0.058). JKM prices decreased to 11.270 USD/MMBtu (-0.235). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.397 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-27
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-27
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-27
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.667 |
| JUN 25 | 10.839 |
| JUL 25 | 10.891 |
| AUG 25 | 10.988 |
| SEP 25 | 11.086 |
| OCT 25 | 11.177 |
| NOV 25 | 11.296 |
| DEC 25 | 11.357 |
| JAN 26 | 11.339 |
| FEB 26 | 11.331 |
| MAR 26 | 11.162 |
| APR 26 | 10.334 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.270 |
| JUL 25 | 10.845 |
| AUG 25 | 10.960 |
| SEP 25 | 11.030 |
| OCT 25 | 11.135 |
| NOV 25 | 11.320 |
| DEC 25 | 11.540 |
| JAN 26 | 11.545 |
| FEB 26 | 11.550 |
| MAR 26 | 11.255 |
| APR 26 | 10.480 |
| MAY 26 | 10.225 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
| 2025-04-27 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-29 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
| 2025-04-30 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
Current market conditions present a neutral outlook. The Fibonacci support level is set at 2.86 while resistance is at 3.34. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.68%, suggesting short-term opportunities for traders who can navigate the volatility in the market. Given the fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD with a change of +6.30, traders should monitor for potential price movements around these key levels.
The neutral sentiment in the market suggests caution in production planning. The current fundamental balance indicates a shift in supply dynamics with a notable increase in demand. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential risks from fluctuating prices, especially in light of the low heating demand forecast and the potential for increased storage builds. The news sentiment surrounding supply concerns could also influence operational strategies moving forward.
With the current market showing neutral sentiment, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The low heating demand forecast indicates that energy costs may remain stable in the short term, but the fundamental balance suggests a watchful eye on supply reliability. Consumers may benefit from evaluating their procurement strategies to hedge against unexpected price increases due to any shifts in demand or supply disruptions.
The market presents a complex picture with neutral sentiment dominating the landscape. Key factors include a fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD and mixed weather impacts across regions. While the ML price forecast suggests a slight increase, the overall volatility and low demand indicate that analysts should monitor external factors, such as geopolitical developments and infrastructure changes, which could shift the outlook from bearish to bullish in the coming weeks.