Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.47
MACD: -0.251
Signal: -0.2164
Days since crossover: 32
Value: 40.45
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,169
Avg (20d): 169,157
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 33.37
%D: 15.41
ADX: 31.52
+DI: 14.22
-DI: 25.51
Value: -66.63
Upper: 4.26
Middle: 3.47
Lower: 2.67
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.667 EUR/MWh (-0.058). JKM prices decreased to 11.270 USD/MMBtu (-0.235). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.397 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-28
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-28
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-28
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.667 |
| JUN 25 | 10.839 |
| JUL 25 | 10.891 |
| AUG 25 | 10.988 |
| SEP 25 | 11.086 |
| OCT 25 | 11.177 |
| NOV 25 | 11.296 |
| DEC 25 | 11.357 |
| JAN 26 | 11.339 |
| FEB 26 | 11.331 |
| MAR 26 | 11.162 |
| APR 26 | 10.334 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.270 |
| JUL 25 | 10.845 |
| AUG 25 | 10.960 |
| SEP 25 | 11.030 |
| OCT 25 | 11.135 |
| NOV 25 | 11.320 |
| DEC 25 | 11.540 |
| JAN 26 | 11.545 |
| FEB 26 | 11.550 |
| MAR 26 | 11.255 |
| APR 26 | 10.480 |
| MAY 26 | 10.225 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
| 2025-04-27 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-29 | $2.96 | $2.67 | $3.25 |
| 2025-04-30 | $2.96 | $2.66 | $3.25 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with potential price movements. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.86 while resistance is at 3.34. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.67%, with a range between 2.67 and 3.25.
Traders should remain cautious of volatility in the short term due to mixed weather impacts and overall market sentiment.
The fundamental balance shows a significant increase in supply at 15.60 BCFD (+6.30). This may affect production strategies, necessitating a reassessment of hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
Producers should also monitor the market sentiment, which remains mixed, particularly with negative sentiment surrounding crude oil due to supply concerns and demand fears.
With low heating demand expected across most regions, consumers may experience stable pricing in the short term. However, the current supply reliability risks should not be overlooked, especially if weather conditions change unexpectedly.
Utilities should consider potential procurement strategies to lock in favorable prices, given the mixed outlook for demand and supply.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with both bullish and bearish factors at play. The fundamental balance indicates a significant supply increase, while weather forecasts suggest low demand for heating and cooling.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and evolving weather patterns, as these will be key in determining future market shifts. The ML price forecast suggests a cautious bullish outlook, but this is contingent on external factors such as geopolitical developments and economic conditions.