Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.43
MACD: -0.221
Signal: -0.2174
Days since crossover: 33
Value: 46.79
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,766
Avg (20d): 172,018
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 52.11
%D: 30.52
ADX: 29.93
+DI: 19.69
-DI: 23.72
Value: -47.89
Upper: 4.17
Middle: 3.43
Lower: 2.69
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.667 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.280 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.387 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-29
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-29
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-29
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.667 |
| JUN 25 | 10.866 |
| JUL 25 | 10.907 |
| AUG 25 | 10.997 |
| SEP 25 | 11.092 |
| OCT 25 | 11.196 |
| NOV 25 | 11.320 |
| DEC 25 | 11.393 |
| JAN 26 | 11.400 |
| FEB 26 | 11.398 |
| MAR 26 | 11.233 |
| APR 26 | 10.359 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.280 |
| JUL 25 | 10.905 |
| AUG 25 | 11.045 |
| SEP 25 | 11.090 |
| OCT 25 | 11.200 |
| NOV 25 | 11.350 |
| DEC 25 | 11.640 |
| JAN 26 | 11.705 |
| FEB 26 | 11.685 |
| MAR 26 | 11.345 |
| APR 26 | 10.500 |
| MAY 26 | 10.295 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-30 | $3.36 | $3.05 | $3.67 |
| 2025-05-01 | $3.38 | $3.07 | $3.68 |
| 2025-05-02 | $3.39 | $3.08 | $3.7 |
| 2025-05-03 | $3.38 | $3.07 | $3.69 |
| 2025-05-04 | $3.36 | $3.05 | $3.67 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a technical score of -1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The ML price forecast indicates a slight downward trend of 0.85%, with a range between 3.05 and 3.67. This presents a potential opportunity for short-term trades within this range, but caution is advised due to the overall neutral market sentiment.
The fundamental balance is at 15.60 BCFD with a significant change of +6.30, indicating an increase in supply. Producers may need to adjust their production planning accordingly. The neutral sentiment in the market could impact hedging strategies, particularly as the news sentiment surrounding natural gas is slightly positive with a score of +0.021. However, concerns regarding crude oil demand—reflected in the negative sentiment of -0.087—should be monitored closely to mitigate risks.
With a low heating demand expected and cooling demand also projected to be low, consumers should prepare for stable supply conditions. The current market sentiment is neutral, suggesting minimal volatility in pricing. However, the potential fluctuations in natural gas prices due to rising supply may present procurement opportunities. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to protect against unexpected price movements.
The energy market is currently exhibiting a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The fundamental balance at 15.60 BCFD indicates a slight increase in supply, influencing market dynamics. The weather outlook shows cooling demand dominating across all regions, which may lead to a bearish trend in prices. The mixed news sentiment, particularly regarding crude oil, suggests potential shifts in market outlook that analysts should closely monitor for future developments.