Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.12
MA(20): $3.4
MACD: -0.1937
Signal: -0.2124
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 46.52
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,455
Avg (20d): 171,996
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 55.43
%D: 47.31
ADX: 27.78
+DI: 20.98
-DI: 22.9
Value: -44.57
Upper: 4.1
Middle: 3.4
Lower: 2.7
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.658 EUR/MWh (-0.009). JKM prices decreased to 11.215 USD/MMBtu (-0.065). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.443 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-30
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-30
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-30
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.658 |
| JUN 25 | 10.690 |
| JUL 25 | 10.733 |
| AUG 25 | 10.825 |
| SEP 25 | 10.937 |
| OCT 25 | 11.042 |
| NOV 25 | 11.200 |
| DEC 25 | 11.280 |
| JAN 26 | 11.299 |
| FEB 26 | 11.312 |
| MAR 26 | 11.151 |
| APR 26 | 10.290 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.215 |
| JUL 25 | 10.820 |
| AUG 25 | 10.960 |
| SEP 25 | 11.050 |
| OCT 25 | 11.210 |
| NOV 25 | 11.390 |
| DEC 25 | 11.640 |
| JAN 26 | 11.720 |
| FEB 26 | 11.705 |
| MAR 26 | 11.380 |
| APR 26 | 10.595 |
| MAY 26 | 10.395 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | $3.35 | $3.05 | $3.64 |
| 2025-05-02 | $3.36 | $3.07 | $3.66 |
| 2025-05-03 | $3.35 | $3.05 | $3.64 |
| 2025-05-04 | $3.33 | $3.03 | $3.62 |
| 2025-05-05 | $3.34 | $3.04 | $3.63 |
Current market conditions are neutral, with a Fibonacci support level at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.62%, suggesting short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on upward price movements.
However, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating possible volatility. Traders should monitor the low heating and cooling demand as it may impact price fluctuations in the near term.
The fundamental balance shows a significant increase in supply at 15.60 BCFD, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning. The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, driven by increased supply concerns, could affect pricing strategies.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price drops, as the market sentiment reflects uncertainty. Monitoring the weather outlook is crucial, especially with heating demand being low across several regions.
With the fundamental balance indicating a supply increase, consumers may experience cost fluctuations in natural gas and oil prices. The current weather outlook suggests low heating demand, which may provide some relief in energy costs.
However, the neutral market sentiment and low cooling demand could lead to supply reliability risks. Consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for potential price volatility in the coming weeks.
The energy market currently exhibits a neutral sentiment, with both bullish and bearish indicators present. The fundamental balance shows a notable increase in supply, while the weather outlook suggests low demand across multiple regions.
Analysts should focus on the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil due to supply concerns, while also recognizing the positive sentiment for natural gas driven by recent price increases. Overall, the market dynamics indicate potential shifts that require close monitoring.