Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.14
MA(20): $3.37
MACD: -0.1655
Signal: -0.2034
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 49.77
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,812
Avg (20d): 172,300
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 78.41
%D: 61.73
ADX: 26.18
+DI: 21.61
-DI: 22.63
Value: -21.59
Upper: 4.0
Middle: 3.37
Lower: 2.74
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.658 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices remained stable to 11.215 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.443 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-05-01
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-01
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-01
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.658 |
| JUN 25 | 10.766 |
| JUL 25 | 10.828 |
| AUG 25 | 10.916 |
| SEP 25 | 11.055 |
| OCT 25 | 11.192 |
| NOV 25 | 11.394 |
| DEC 25 | 11.479 |
| JAN 26 | 11.506 |
| FEB 26 | 11.526 |
| MAR 26 | 11.371 |
| APR 26 | 10.530 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.215 |
| JUL 25 | 10.850 |
| AUG 25 | 10.990 |
| SEP 25 | 11.050 |
| OCT 25 | 11.245 |
| NOV 25 | 11.460 |
| DEC 25 | 11.715 |
| JAN 26 | 11.840 |
| FEB 26 | 11.850 |
| MAR 26 | 11.505 |
| APR 26 | 10.750 |
| MAY 26 | 10.575 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-02 | $3.49 | $3.18 | $3.79 |
| 2025-05-03 | $3.47 | $3.17 | $3.77 |
| 2025-05-04 | $3.46 | $3.15 | $3.76 |
| 2025-05-05 | $3.47 | $3.17 | $3.77 |
| 2025-05-06 | $3.45 | $3.15 | $3.76 |
The current market conditions present neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. Traders should be aware of potential price volatility given the ML forecast indicating a slight upward movement of 0.18% within the range of 3.18 to 3.79. Watch for short-term opportunities as the market sentiment remains stable, but be cautious of any sudden changes in demand or geopolitical news that could impact pricing.
Producers should consider the neutral market sentiment and a slight increase in fundamental balance as they plan for production. The recent news indicates fluctuations in natural gas prices due to output drops and mild weather affecting demand. This suggests a need for strategic hedging to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Producers in the Northeast and Midwest may face higher heating demand, while those in the South and West should prepare for cooling demand to dominate.
Consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations as the market adjusts to the current neutral sentiment and fundamental balance. The low heating demand and low cooling demand forecast may lead to stable supply conditions, but keep an eye on regional variations, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest where heating demand is higher. This could affect procurement strategies, especially if prices begin to shift based on upcoming weather patterns or geopolitical developments.
The overall market picture is characterized by neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance showing an increase. The technical indicators suggest a support level at 3.34 and a resistance level at 3.64. Key driving factors include the cooling demand in the South and West, contrasted by heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest. Analysts should monitor the impact of geopolitical factors and weather forecasts closely, as these could shift market dynamics significantly.