Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.21
MA(20): $3.35
MACD: -0.1236
Signal: -0.1871
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 54.92
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 159,640
Avg (20d): 179,852
Ratio: 0.89
%K: 94.72
%D: 76.46
ADX: 25.2
+DI: 25.77
-DI: 20.32
Value: -5.28
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.35
Lower: 2.8
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices increased to 10.992 EUR/MWh (+0.356). JKM prices remained stable to 11.260 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.268 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-03
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-03
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-03
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 10.992 |
| JUL 25 | 11.081 |
| AUG 25 | 11.165 |
| SEP 25 | 11.308 |
| OCT 25 | 11.431 |
| NOV 25 | 11.646 |
| DEC 25 | 11.720 |
| JAN 26 | 11.729 |
| FEB 26 | 11.732 |
| MAR 26 | 11.571 |
| APR 26 | 10.707 |
| MAY 26 | 10.494 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.260 |
| JUL 25 | 10.965 |
| AUG 25 | 11.150 |
| SEP 25 | 11.360 |
| OCT 25 | 11.475 |
| NOV 25 | 11.710 |
| DEC 25 | 12.010 |
| JAN 26 | 12.095 |
| FEB 26 | 12.080 |
| MAR 26 | 11.755 |
| APR 26 | 10.940 |
| MAY 26 | 10.755 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | $3.6 | $3.29 | $3.91 |
| 2025-05-04 | $3.59 | $3.28 | $3.89 |
| 2025-05-05 | $3.61 | $3.3 | $3.92 |
| 2025-05-06 | $3.6 | $3.29 | $3.91 |
| 2025-05-07 | $3.58 | $3.28 | $3.89 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD indicates a slight increase, which may lead to short-term price fluctuations. The ML price forecast shows a potential decrease of 0.80%, suggesting traders should be cautious of short-term volatility in trading strategies. Monitor the resistance level closely for potential breakout opportunities.
With a neutral overall market sentiment and a significant increase in fundamental balance, producers should evaluate their production planning to align with anticipated demand fluctuations. The recent headlines indicate higher demand for natural gas, driven by lower output, which could affect pricing strategies and hedging approaches. Consider adjusting production levels to optimize profit margins amidst these bullish trends.
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to a neutral market outlook and low demand forecasts. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and minimal cooling needs, suggesting stable pricing in the short term. However, with the Fibonacci support at 3.34, it’s essential to monitor market developments for any shifts that might affect procurement strategies and supply reliability.
The market presents a complex picture with neutral sentiment overall. Key driving factors include a fundamental balance increase and mixed weather impacts across regions. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline, which may be driven by lower demand and increased supply concerns. Analysts should focus on the weather impacts and regional demand patterns to anticipate shifts in market dynamics and provide informed insights to stakeholders.