Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.28
MA(20): $3.34
MACD: -0.0874
Signal: -0.1671
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 56.22
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 6,462
Avg (20d): 167,848
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 95.13
%D: 90.7
ADX: 24.45
+DI: 26.56
-DI: 19.72
Value: -4.87
Upper: 3.85
Middle: 3.34
Lower: 2.82
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.6 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.4 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 96.0 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.8 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices increased to 10.992 EUR/MWh (+0.356). JKM prices remained stable to 11.260 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.268 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-04
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-04
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-04
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 10.992 |
| JUL 25 | 11.081 |
| AUG 25 | 11.165 |
| SEP 25 | 11.308 |
| OCT 25 | 11.431 |
| NOV 25 | 11.646 |
| DEC 25 | 11.720 |
| JAN 26 | 11.729 |
| FEB 26 | 11.732 |
| MAR 26 | 11.571 |
| APR 26 | 10.707 |
| MAY 26 | 10.494 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.260 |
| JUL 25 | 10.965 |
| AUG 25 | 11.150 |
| SEP 25 | 11.360 |
| OCT 25 | 11.475 |
| NOV 25 | 11.710 |
| DEC 25 | 12.010 |
| JAN 26 | 12.095 |
| FEB 26 | 12.080 |
| MAR 26 | 11.755 |
| APR 26 | 10.940 |
| MAY 26 | 10.755 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | $3.6 | $3.29 | $3.91 |
| 2025-05-04 | $3.59 | $3.28 | $3.89 |
| 2025-05-05 | $3.61 | $3.3 | $3.92 |
| 2025-05-06 | $3.6 | $3.29 | $3.91 |
| 2025-05-07 | $3.58 | $3.28 | $3.89 |
Current market conditions are neutral, suggesting limited directional momentum. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.64 and resistance at 3.88. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.81%, with a trading range between 3.29 and 3.91. This presents short-term risks for bullish positions, especially given the cooling demand dominating across all regions, which may constrain upward price movements.
With a fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD showing a slight decrease of 0.80, producers may need to adjust production plans in response to lower output and higher demand signals. The market sentiment remains stable, but the positive sentiment around natural gas (+0.058) indicates potential for favorable pricing in the near term. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and adjust operations to align with the moderate cooling demand forecast.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market reflects a neutral sentiment. The low heating demand forecast suggests that heating costs will remain manageable, but the 14.80 BCFD balance indicates a slight tightening in supply which could affect future prices. It may be prudent for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to ensure supply reliability amidst the shifting market dynamics.
The current market landscape is characterized by a neutral sentiment, with a fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD indicating slight bearish pressure. Key drivers include the cooling demand across all regions and mixed news sentiment affecting supply and demand dynamics. The ML price forecast suggests caution, with a predicted decrease in prices. Analysts should monitor these trends closely, as shifts in geopolitical factors and infrastructure developments could lead to significant changes in market conditions.