Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.28
MA(20): $3.33
MACD: -0.093
Signal: -0.1683
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 54.18
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,645
Avg (20d): 166,723
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 92.02
%D: 89.67
ADX: 24.24
+DI: 25.18
-DI: 19.85
Value: -7.98
Upper: 3.84
Middle: 3.33
Lower: 2.82
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.6 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.4 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 96.0 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.8 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices increased to 10.992 EUR/MWh (+0.356). JKM prices remained stable to 11.260 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.268 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-05
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-05
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-05
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 10.992 |
| JUL 25 | 11.081 |
| AUG 25 | 11.165 |
| SEP 25 | 11.308 |
| OCT 25 | 11.431 |
| NOV 25 | 11.646 |
| DEC 25 | 11.720 |
| JAN 26 | 11.729 |
| FEB 26 | 11.732 |
| MAR 26 | 11.571 |
| APR 26 | 10.707 |
| MAY 26 | 10.494 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.260 |
| JUL 25 | 10.965 |
| AUG 25 | 11.150 |
| SEP 25 | 11.360 |
| OCT 25 | 11.475 |
| NOV 25 | 11.710 |
| DEC 25 | 12.010 |
| JAN 26 | 12.095 |
| FEB 26 | 12.080 |
| MAR 26 | 11.755 |
| APR 26 | 10.940 |
| MAY 26 | 10.755 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-06 | $3.54 | $3.23 | $3.85 |
| 2025-05-07 | $3.56 | $3.26 | $3.87 |
| 2025-05-08 | $3.55 | $3.24 | $3.86 |
| 2025-05-09 | $3.53 | $3.23 | $3.84 |
| 2025-05-10 | $3.54 | $3.24 | $3.85 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment overall, with a technical score of 0/5. Traders should closely monitor the Fibonacci support level at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The ML price forecast suggests a slight potential decline of 0.26%, with a trading range of 3.23 to 3.85. This presents short-term opportunities, but also indicates volatility risks as the fundamental balance shows a 14.80 BCFD with a decrease of -0.80.
The current market sentiment is neutral, which may influence production planning. The fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD indicates a slight tightening in supply, suggesting potential for price recovery if demand increases. Producers should consider hedging strategies against price fluctuations, especially with the mixed news sentiment surrounding natural gas and crude oil. The latest headlines about lower output and higher demand for natural gas could signal a favorable market shift.
With a neutral market sentiment and low expected cooling demand, consumers can anticipate relatively stable costs in the short term. However, the fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD indicates some supply tightening, which may lead to fluctuations in prices. The latest news regarding lower demand forecasts for natural gas should be monitored closely, as it could affect procurement strategies and supply reliability in the coming weeks.
Analyzing the current market data, the overall sentiment remains neutral. The fundamental balance reflects a slight decrease, indicating a tightening market that could influence price dynamics. The cooling demand patterns suggest a bearish outlook in the short term, particularly in the Midwest and South regions. However, the bullish sentiment surrounding natural gas due to lower output and increased demand could provide a counterbalance. Analysts should prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics based on evolving weather conditions and supply-demand adjustments.