Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.8 BCFD
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.6 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.4 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 96.0 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.8 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 10.925 EUR/MWh (-0.067). JKM prices remained stable to 11.260 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.335 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-06
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-06
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-06
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 10.925 |
| JUL 25 | 10.993 |
| AUG 25 | 11.078 |
| SEP 25 | 11.242 |
| OCT 25 | 11.374 |
| NOV 25 | 11.591 |
| DEC 25 | 11.659 |
| JAN 26 | 11.680 |
| FEB 26 | 11.684 |
| MAR 26 | 11.525 |
| APR 26 | 10.735 |
| MAY 26 | 10.523 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.260 |
| JUL 25 | 10.965 |
| AUG 25 | 11.150 |
| SEP 25 | 11.360 |
| OCT 25 | 11.475 |
| NOV 25 | 11.710 |
| DEC 25 | 12.010 |
| JAN 26 | 12.095 |
| FEB 26 | 12.080 |
| MAR 26 | 11.755 |
| APR 26 | 10.940 |
| MAY 26 | 10.755 |
Given the current fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD with a slight decrease of -0.80, traders should monitor for potential volatility in the natural gas market. The weather outlook indicates low heating and cooling demand, which could limit upward price movements in the short term. The overall market sentiment is neutral with a sentiment score of -0.032, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias. Traders should look for support levels around the recent lows, while any bullish news could create short-term trading opportunities.
Producers should take note of the current market sentiment which is neutral, with specific bearish sentiment in crude oil at -0.047. The decrease in supply of 0.80 BCFD may necessitate adjustments in production planning to align with the low demand forecast. Additionally, the news sentiment indicates mixed signals, particularly regarding crude oil, which may affect hedging strategies. Producers should consider maintaining flexibility in production and hedging to mitigate potential risks from fluctuating demand.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the fundamental balance indicating lower demand, particularly in the natural gas sector. The outlook suggests low heating and cooling demand, which may lead to stable pricing in the short term. However, with the overall market sentiment being neutral, consumers should keep an eye on any developments that could impact supply reliability. It may be prudent to explore procurement strategies that hedge against unexpected price spikes.
The current market landscape reflects a neutral sentiment overall, with a slight bearish tilt in crude oil. The fundamental balance shows a decrease in demand, which is likely driven by the low heating and cooling forecasts. Analysts should pay close attention to the potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics, particularly as global demand trends from Europe and China could influence crude oil prices. Overall, the interplay of these factors suggests a cautious outlook, with the need for ongoing analysis as market conditions evolve.