Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.39
MA(20): $3.33
MACD: -0.0607
Signal: -0.1337
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 53.39
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 124,716
Avg (20d): 160,108
Ratio: 0.78
%K: 82.23
%D: 76.04
ADX: 22.28
+DI: 23.22
-DI: 19.7
Value: -17.77
Upper: 3.82
Middle: 3.33
Lower: 2.83
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.6 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.4 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 96.0 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.8 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices increased to 11.420 EUR/MWh (+0.495). JKM prices increased to 11.315 USD/MMBtu (+0.055). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.105 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-07
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-07
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-07
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.420 |
| JUL 25 | 11.610 |
| AUG 25 | 11.699 |
| SEP 25 | 11.869 |
| OCT 25 | 11.991 |
| NOV 25 | 12.189 |
| DEC 25 | 12.258 |
| JAN 26 | 12.270 |
| FEB 26 | 12.271 |
| MAR 26 | 12.085 |
| APR 26 | 11.165 |
| MAY 26 | 10.935 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.315 |
| JUL 25 | 11.645 |
| AUG 25 | 11.745 |
| SEP 25 | 11.890 |
| OCT 25 | 12.010 |
| NOV 25 | 12.215 |
| DEC 25 | 12.500 |
| JAN 26 | 12.575 |
| FEB 26 | 12.540 |
| MAR 26 | 12.270 |
| APR 26 | 11.390 |
| MAY 26 | 11.185 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-07 | $3.49 | $3.18 | $3.8 |
| 2025-05-08 | $3.48 | $3.17 | $3.79 |
| 2025-05-09 | $3.46 | $3.15 | $3.77 |
| 2025-05-10 | $3.46 | $3.16 | $3.77 |
| 2025-05-11 | $3.47 | $3.17 | $3.78 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a support level at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The fundamental balance has shifted slightly downward to 14.80 BCFD, suggesting a potential tightening in supply.
The weather outlook shows a dominance of cooling demand, particularly in the South (CDD: 14.0), which may bolster short-term price movements. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.86%, indicating potential short-term opportunities. Traders should be cautious of volatility arising from fluctuating demand forecasts and geopolitical factors affecting supply.
With the fundamental balance at 14.80 BCFD and a slight decrease in production indicated by the recent headlines, producers should consider adjusting their output strategies. The negative sentiment surrounding demand, particularly for natural gas, suggests a need for cautious production planning.
Producers may want to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, especially given the neutral technical indicators. Monitoring the return of Freeport LNG and its impact on output will be critical for operational decisions moving forward.
The current market conditions indicate potential cost fluctuations due to a neutral technical outlook and a fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD. With low heating demand expected and cooling demand rising, consumers should prepare for possible price increases in the short term.
Given the weather outlook favoring cooling, utilities may need to adjust procurement strategies to ensure supply reliability. It is advisable to monitor market trends closely and consider hedging options to protect against unexpected price spikes.
The market landscape is characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with a slight bearish tilt in natural gas demand. The fundamental balance indicates a decrease in supply, which may lead to tighter market conditions. The weather outlook suggests increased cooling demand, particularly in warmer regions, which could influence pricing dynamics.
Key driving factors include the bearish sentiment surrounding demand forecasts and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on supply stability. Analysts should keep a close eye on these trends to identify shifts in market outlook and adjust forecasts accordingly.