Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.9 BCFD
MA(9): $3.58
MA(20): $3.34
MACD: 0.0099
Signal: -0.0729
Days since crossover: 9
Value: 56.79
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 5,407
Avg (20d): 140,044
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 91.85
%D: 90.77
ADX: 21.24
+DI: 24.61
-DI: 16.76
Value: -8.15
Upper: 3.86
Middle: 3.34
Lower: 2.82
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.0 | 105.7 | 99.2 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.37 |
| Total Supply | 109.9 | 110.8 | 104.3 | 103.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.8 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.43 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.1 | 30.6 | 31.8 | 29.33 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 17.27 |
| LNG Exports | 15.1 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 95.0 | 96.0 | 95.4 | 94.33 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.9 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 9.47 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.345 EUR/MWh (-0.169). JKM prices increased to 11.465 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.120 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-11
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-11
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-11
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.345 |
| JUL 25 | 11.501 |
| AUG 25 | 11.587 |
| SEP 25 | 11.748 |
| OCT 25 | 11.871 |
| NOV 25 | 12.089 |
| DEC 25 | 12.185 |
| JAN 26 | 12.221 |
| FEB 26 | 12.227 |
| MAR 26 | 12.070 |
| APR 26 | 11.171 |
| MAY 26 | 10.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.465 |
| JUL 25 | 11.725 |
| AUG 25 | 11.755 |
| SEP 25 | 11.885 |
| OCT 25 | 11.990 |
| NOV 25 | 12.235 |
| DEC 25 | 12.505 |
| JAN 26 | 12.600 |
| FEB 26 | 12.590 |
| MAR 26 | 12.225 |
| APR 26 | 11.315 |
| MAY 26 | 11.100 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | $3.79 | $3.47 | $4.11 |
| 2025-05-11 | $3.8 | $3.48 | $4.12 |
| 2025-05-12 | $3.79 | $3.47 | $4.11 |
| 2025-05-13 | $3.8 | $3.49 | $4.12 |
| 2025-05-14 | $3.78 | $3.47 | $4.1 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.64, while resistance is at 3.88. Given the ML price forecast suggesting a potential downward movement of 0.20%, traders should be cautious of short-term volatility. The convergence of fundamental balance at 14.90 BCFD with a slight increase and a cooling demand forecast may present opportunities for strategic positioning around the support level.
With a neutral market sentiment and fundamental balance slightly increasing, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with the current demand trends. The positive sentiment around supply and demand, particularly with rising LNG export flows, indicates a need for potential hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations. Additionally, the cooling demand outlook suggests moderate production levels may suffice in the short term, but producers should remain vigilant of market shifts.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows neutral sentiment and a cooling demand forecast. With the fundamental balance at 14.90 BCFD, supply reliability appears stable for now, but it is crucial to monitor the ML price forecast indicating a slight potential decline. This could impact procurement strategies, suggesting that locking in prices may be prudent if costs are expected to rise in the future.
The current market presents a neutral outlook, with key driving factors being the positive sentiment from both supply and demand indicators. The fundamental balance is slightly up, reflecting a stable supply-demand dynamic. Analysts should focus on the implications of the cooling demand and the ML forecast suggesting a potential price decline as important factors that could shift market dynamics in the near term. Keeping track of sentiment changes around infrastructure developments and export flows will be essential for accurate forecasting.