Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.47
MA(20): $3.41
MACD: -0.0455
Signal: -0.0395
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 47.11
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 235
Avg (20d): 144,518
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 36.66
%D: 27.67
ADX: 16.47
+DI: 21.1
-DI: 23.6
Value: -63.34
Upper: 3.87
Middle: 3.41
Lower: 2.96
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 105.0 | 98.8 | 98.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 110.4 | 109.9 | 104.3 | 103.5 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.2 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 30.77 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 13.37 |
| LNG Exports | 15.9 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 94.4 | 95.0 | 95.2 | 91.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.0 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 11.77 |
TTF prices increased to 11.666 EUR/MWh (+0.217). JKM prices increased to 12.515 USD/MMBtu (+0.550). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.849 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-21
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-21
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.666 |
| JUL 25 | 12.251 |
| AUG 25 | 12.316 |
| SEP 25 | 12.451 |
| OCT 25 | 12.568 |
| NOV 25 | 12.749 |
| DEC 25 | 12.841 |
| JAN 26 | 12.871 |
| FEB 26 | 12.877 |
| MAR 26 | 12.709 |
| APR 26 | 11.710 |
| MAY 26 | 11.396 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.515 |
| AUG 25 | 12.595 |
| SEP 25 | 12.655 |
| OCT 25 | 12.715 |
| NOV 25 | 12.880 |
| DEC 25 | 13.145 |
| JAN 26 | 13.285 |
| FEB 26 | 13.260 |
| MAR 26 | 12.875 |
| APR 26 | 11.910 |
| MAY 26 | 11.670 |
| JUN 26 | 11.660 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-21 | $3.4 | $3.11 | $3.69 |
| 2025-05-22 | $3.41 | $3.11 | $3.7 |
| 2025-05-23 | $3.41 | $3.12 | $3.71 |
| 2025-05-24 | $3.44 | $3.15 | $3.73 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.41 | $3.12 | $3.7 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34, while resistance is at 3.64. Traders should be cautious of potential price movements, as the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.72% within a range of 3.11 to 3.69. This volatility presents both opportunities and risks in short-term trading strategies.
With the fundamental balance at 16.00 BCFD and a slight increase of +1.10, producers should assess their production levels accordingly. The neutral market sentiment suggests that while there is no immediate pressure to change production, the hedging strategies should be revisited to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand and geopolitical uncertainties. Monitoring the news sentiment around supply will be crucial for operational adjustments.
As the weather outlook indicates moderate heating and cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in costs. The bearish sentiment in the market may lead to lower prices, but the reliability of supply could be impacted by geopolitical factors. It would be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for these risks while taking advantage of current pricing trends.
The current market landscape reflects a bearish outlook driven by technical indicators and a neutral sentiment score. The fundamental balance suggests slight oversupply, while the weather outlook indicates moderate demand fluctuations across regions. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and geopolitical developments, as these are likely to be the strongest driving factors influencing market shifts in the near future.