Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.47
MA(20): $3.41
MACD: -0.0451
Signal: -0.0394
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 47.26
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,643
Avg (20d): 146,982
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 37.47
%D: 27.94
ADX: 16.47
+DI: 21.08
-DI: 23.58
Value: -62.53
Upper: 3.87
Middle: 3.41
Lower: 2.96
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 105.0 | 98.8 | 98.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 110.4 | 109.9 | 104.3 | 103.5 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.2 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 30.77 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 13.37 |
| LNG Exports | 15.9 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 94.4 | 95.0 | 95.2 | 91.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.0 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 11.77 |
TTF prices increased to 11.666 EUR/MWh (+0.217). JKM prices increased to 12.515 USD/MMBtu (+0.550). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.849 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-21
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-21
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.666 |
| JUL 25 | 12.251 |
| AUG 25 | 12.316 |
| SEP 25 | 12.451 |
| OCT 25 | 12.568 |
| NOV 25 | 12.749 |
| DEC 25 | 12.841 |
| JAN 26 | 12.871 |
| FEB 26 | 12.877 |
| MAR 26 | 12.709 |
| APR 26 | 11.710 |
| MAY 26 | 11.396 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.515 |
| AUG 25 | 12.595 |
| SEP 25 | 12.655 |
| OCT 25 | 12.715 |
| NOV 25 | 12.880 |
| DEC 25 | 13.145 |
| JAN 26 | 13.285 |
| FEB 26 | 13.260 |
| MAR 26 | 12.875 |
| APR 26 | 11.910 |
| MAY 26 | 11.670 |
| JUN 26 | 11.660 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-22 | $3.37 | $3.1 | $3.65 |
| 2025-05-23 | $3.38 | $3.11 | $3.66 |
| 2025-05-24 | $3.41 | $3.13 | $3.69 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.38 | $3.1 | $3.65 |
| 2025-05-26 | $3.39 | $3.11 | $3.66 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish outlook with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34 while resistance is noted at 3.64. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations within the forecasted range of 3.1 to 3.65, especially given the 0.20% upward ML price forecast. Volatility may arise from the cooling demand across regions, particularly in the South and West, which could lead to short-term trading opportunities or risks.
With a fundamental balance of 16.00 BCFD (an increase of 1.10), producers should assess their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The moderate bearish sentiment in the market, coupled with news indicating a smaller-than-expected decline in output, suggests a need for cautious management of production levels. Additionally, the neutral overall market sentiment should be monitored closely for shifts that may impact operational decisions.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly as the market sentiment remains neutral. The expected low heating demand and moderate cooling demand in various regions may impact supply reliability. As the fundamental balance shows an increase, it may provide some stability, but vigilance is needed regarding procurement strategies and potential hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
The current market landscape is characterized by a moderately bearish sentiment reflected in the technical analysis and a fundamental balance of 16.00 BCFD. Key driving factors include the cooling demand in the South and West, alongside geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast and monitor how shifts in news sentiment, particularly regarding supply concerns, may alter the outlook for both natural gas and crude oil markets.