Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.37
MA(20): $3.45
MACD: -0.0574
Signal: -0.0456
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 46.01
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 58,329
Avg (20d): 154,912
Ratio: 0.38
%K: 29.11
%D: 28.8
ADX: 15.13
+DI: 20.28
-DI: 24.56
Value: -70.89
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.45
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.611 EUR/MWh (-0.042). JKM prices decreased to 12.350 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.739 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-23
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-23
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-23
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.611 |
| JUL 25 | 12.071 |
| AUG 25 | 12.138 |
| SEP 25 | 12.285 |
| OCT 25 | 12.410 |
| NOV 25 | 12.598 |
| DEC 25 | 12.693 |
| JAN 26 | 12.723 |
| FEB 26 | 12.730 |
| MAR 26 | 12.561 |
| APR 26 | 11.707 |
| MAY 26 | 11.437 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.350 |
| AUG 25 | 12.370 |
| SEP 25 | 12.430 |
| OCT 25 | 12.485 |
| NOV 25 | 12.655 |
| DEC 25 | 12.950 |
| JAN 26 | 13.075 |
| FEB 26 | 13.055 |
| MAR 26 | 12.670 |
| APR 26 | 11.875 |
| MAY 26 | 12.030 |
| JUN 26 | 11.665 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-23 | $3.28 | $3.0 | $3.56 |
| 2025-05-24 | $3.3 | $3.02 | $3.58 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.26 | $2.98 | $3.54 |
| 2025-05-26 | $3.27 | $2.99 | $3.55 |
| 2025-05-27 | $3.28 | $3.0 | $3.56 |
The current market sentiment is neutral, with a moderately bearish technical interpretation (Score: -2/5). Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34, indicating potential price volatility within this range. The ML price forecast suggests a 0.71% increase with a projected range of 3.0 to 3.56. This presents short-term opportunities, but caution is warranted as the market could react to changing demand and supply dynamics.
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 13.60 BCFD with a notable decrease of -2.40. This indicates a tighter supply situation, potentially affecting pricing strategies. The neutral sentiment in news articles suggests stability, but the negative sentiment surrounding crude oil due to geopolitical tensions could impact overall market confidence. Producers may want to adjust their hedging strategies to mitigate potential risks from fluctuating prices.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market remains neutral with a bearish technical outlook. The weather forecasts indicate low heating demand and low cooling demand, suggesting stable consumption levels. However, with the fundamental balance tightening, there may be risks to supply reliability. Consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases in the near term.
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with a convergence of indicators suggesting a moderately bearish outlook. The technical indicators, along with the fundamental balance of 13.60 BCFD, highlight a market that is adjusting to lower output and demand forecasts. The cooling demand across regions further reinforces a cautious approach. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as they could shift market dynamics significantly.