Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.37
MA(20): $3.45
MACD: -0.0558
Signal: -0.0453
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 46.63
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 91,988
Avg (20d): 156,595
Ratio: 0.59
%K: 31.81
%D: 29.69
ADX: 15.13
+DI: 20.28
-DI: 24.56
Value: -68.19
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.45
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices increased to 11.634 EUR/MWh (+0.023). JKM prices increased to 12.485 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.851 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-24
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-24
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-24
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.634 |
| JUL 25 | 12.185 |
| AUG 25 | 12.268 |
| SEP 25 | 12.428 |
| OCT 25 | 12.557 |
| NOV 25 | 12.751 |
| DEC 25 | 12.844 |
| JAN 26 | 12.874 |
| FEB 26 | 12.890 |
| MAR 26 | 12.722 |
| APR 26 | 11.864 |
| MAY 26 | 11.593 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.485 |
| AUG 25 | 12.585 |
| SEP 25 | 12.635 |
| OCT 25 | 12.690 |
| NOV 25 | 12.850 |
| DEC 25 | 13.155 |
| JAN 26 | 13.270 |
| FEB 26 | 13.285 |
| MAR 26 | 12.895 |
| APR 26 | 12.070 |
| MAY 26 | 11.875 |
| JUN 26 | 11.855 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-24 | $3.35 | $3.08 | $3.62 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.31 | $3.04 | $3.59 |
| 2025-05-26 | $3.32 | $3.05 | $3.6 |
| 2025-05-27 | $3.34 | $3.06 | $3.61 |
| 2025-05-28 | $3.33 | $3.05 | $3.6 |
The current market data presents a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range.
The ML price forecast suggests a slight uptick of 0.49%, with a range of 3.08 to 3.62. This offers short-term trading opportunities, but caution is warranted due to the overall neutral market sentiment and potential volatility.
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 13.60 BCFD with a decrease of 2.40, indicating a tightening supply that could affect pricing strategies. The neutral news sentiment suggests mixed market perceptions, which may influence production planning and hedging strategies.
Given the cooling demand expected in residential and commercial sectors, producers may need to adjust output accordingly to avoid oversupply and potential price drops.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, particularly with the current bearish sentiment and low heating demand. The slight increase in prices forecasted may offer a window for procurement strategies.
With the fundamental balance indicating a decrease in supply, securing contracts now could mitigate future price spikes. Monitoring the market sentiment and adjusting procurement strategies accordingly will be essential.
The energy market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which, combined with the cooling demand forecast, suggests a complex market environment.
Key driving factors include the neutral news sentiment and a slight upward forecast from ML predictions. Analysts should focus on the implications of these factors for future price movements and market dynamics.