Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.33
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.0564
Signal: -0.0475
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 46.31
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 584
Avg (20d): 145,151
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 30.32
%D: 27.67
ADX: 14.4
+DI: 21.64
-DI: 23.84
Value: -69.68
Upper: 3.78
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices increased to 11.634 EUR/MWh (+0.023). JKM prices increased to 12.485 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.851 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-25
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-25
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-25
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.634 |
| JUL 25 | 12.185 |
| AUG 25 | 12.268 |
| SEP 25 | 12.428 |
| OCT 25 | 12.557 |
| NOV 25 | 12.751 |
| DEC 25 | 12.844 |
| JAN 26 | 12.874 |
| FEB 26 | 12.890 |
| MAR 26 | 12.722 |
| APR 26 | 11.864 |
| MAY 26 | 11.593 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.485 |
| AUG 25 | 12.585 |
| SEP 25 | 12.635 |
| OCT 25 | 12.690 |
| NOV 25 | 12.850 |
| DEC 25 | 13.155 |
| JAN 26 | 13.270 |
| FEB 26 | 13.285 |
| MAR 26 | 12.895 |
| APR 26 | 12.070 |
| MAY 26 | 11.875 |
| JUN 26 | 11.855 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-24 | $3.35 | $3.08 | $3.62 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.31 | $3.04 | $3.59 |
| 2025-05-26 | $3.32 | $3.05 | $3.6 |
| 2025-05-27 | $3.34 | $3.06 | $3.61 |
| 2025-05-28 | $3.33 | $3.05 | $3.6 |
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.86, while the resistance level is at 3.34. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.49%, with a projected range of 3.08 to 3.62. Opportunities may arise if prices test the resistance level, but the current fundamental balance of 13.60 BCFD (down by 2.40) suggests underlying weakness in demand.
Producers should be aware of the moderately bearish sentiment reflected in the market. The fundamental balance indicates a decline, which could necessitate adjustments in production planning. The hedging strategies may need to be revised in light of the cooling demand forecast and the potential for lower prices. The news sentiment around natural gas is mixed, with a slight positive sentiment score of +0.023, but ongoing concerns about output and demand should be monitored closely.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows signs of a moderately bearish trend. The forecast indicates low heating demand in the residential and commercial sectors, which may lead to lower prices in the short term. However, the fundamental balance of 13.60 BCFD suggests a tightening supply, which could pose supply reliability risks if demand unexpectedly increases. Consumers should consider proactive procurement strategies to mitigate these risks.
The current market landscape reveals a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5, indicating potential price declines. Key driving factors include a fundamental balance of 13.60 BCFD and a mixed weather outlook that favors cooling demand in most regions. The news sentiment analysis shows a neutral overall sentiment, suggesting that while there are bullish indicators for natural gas, the broader market remains cautious. Analysts should monitor these trends closely for any shifts that could alter the current outlook.