Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.33
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.0589
Signal: -0.048
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 45.44
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 5,538
Avg (20d): 145,399
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 26.15
%D: 26.28
ADX: 14.4
+DI: 21.11
-DI: 23.26
Value: -73.85
Upper: 3.78
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices increased to 11.634 EUR/MWh (+0.023). JKM prices increased to 12.485 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.851 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-26
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-26
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-26
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.634 |
| JUL 25 | 12.185 |
| AUG 25 | 12.268 |
| SEP 25 | 12.428 |
| OCT 25 | 12.557 |
| NOV 25 | 12.751 |
| DEC 25 | 12.844 |
| JAN 26 | 12.874 |
| FEB 26 | 12.890 |
| MAR 26 | 12.722 |
| APR 26 | 11.864 |
| MAY 26 | 11.593 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.485 |
| AUG 25 | 12.585 |
| SEP 25 | 12.635 |
| OCT 25 | 12.690 |
| NOV 25 | 12.850 |
| DEC 25 | 13.155 |
| JAN 26 | 13.270 |
| FEB 26 | 13.285 |
| MAR 26 | 12.895 |
| APR 26 | 12.070 |
| MAY 26 | 11.875 |
| JUN 26 | 11.855 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-24 | $3.35 | $3.08 | $3.62 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.31 | $3.04 | $3.58 |
| 2025-05-26 | $3.32 | $3.05 | $3.59 |
| 2025-05-27 | $3.34 | $3.06 | $3.61 |
| 2025-05-28 | $3.33 | $3.05 | $3.6 |
Current market data suggests a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34. The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.48%, with a projected range between 3.08 and 3.62. This presents short-term trading opportunities, but volatility may arise due to the mixed sentiment from various news articles.
The fundamental balance stands at 13.60 BCFD with a notable decrease of 2.40, indicating potential adjustments in production levels may be necessary. With overall market sentiment remaining neutral, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from fluctuating prices. The positive sentiment around natural gas prices could support pricing, but caution is advised due to the bearish outlook reflected in other segments.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the weather outlook shows a dominance of cooling demand, particularly in the South and Midwest. The expected low heating demand may lead to stable prices in the short term, but the fundamental balance indicates a decline that could impact supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies to lock in prices before any significant shifts occur.
The current market landscape is characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with a slight bearish inclination due to the technical indicators. The strongest driving factors include the decrease in fundamental balance and mixed news sentiment across commodities. Analysts should monitor the weather patterns closely, as they are expected to influence demand dynamics significantly. The upcoming days may present shifts in market sentiment, particularly if cooling demand remains high amid fluctuating output levels.