Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.35
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.0479
Signal: -0.0458
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 49.63
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 37
Avg (20d): 143,554
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 44.74
%D: 32.48
ADX: 14.11
+DI: 23.11
-DI: 23.52
Value: -55.26
Upper: 3.78
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.15
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices increased to 11.634 EUR/MWh (+0.023). JKM prices increased to 12.485 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.851 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-27
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-27
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-27
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.634 |
| JUL 25 | 12.185 |
| AUG 25 | 12.268 |
| SEP 25 | 12.428 |
| OCT 25 | 12.557 |
| NOV 25 | 12.751 |
| DEC 25 | 12.844 |
| JAN 26 | 12.874 |
| FEB 26 | 12.890 |
| MAR 26 | 12.722 |
| APR 26 | 11.864 |
| MAY 26 | 11.593 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.485 |
| AUG 25 | 12.585 |
| SEP 25 | 12.635 |
| OCT 25 | 12.690 |
| NOV 25 | 12.850 |
| DEC 25 | 13.155 |
| JAN 26 | 13.270 |
| FEB 26 | 13.285 |
| MAR 26 | 12.895 |
| APR 26 | 12.070 |
| MAY 26 | 11.875 |
| JUN 26 | 11.855 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-28 | $3.4 | $3.13 | $3.67 |
| 2025-05-29 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $3.68 |
| 2025-05-30 | $3.4 | $3.13 | $3.68 |
| 2025-05-31 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $3.68 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.4 | $3.13 | $3.67 |
Current market data suggests a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.02%, suggesting cautious trading strategies in the short term. Traders should monitor the cooling demand across regions, particularly in the Midwest and South, which may influence price volatility and create short-term opportunities or risks.
The fundamental balance shows a decrease to 13.60 BCFD, which could impact production planning and necessitate adjustments in output levels. Given the neutral market sentiment and mixed news regarding crude oil supply, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines while monitoring geopolitical developments that could influence market dynamics.
With low heating demand expected across residential and commercial sectors, consumers may experience stable pricing in the short term. However, the risk of supply fluctuations remains, particularly with ongoing geopolitical tensions. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to protect against potential cost increases in the coming weeks.
The market presents a bearish sentiment overall, with significant cooling demand across all regions contributing to a negative fundamental balance. The neutral news sentiment coupled with mixed indicators from technical analysis suggests a cautious approach. Analysts should focus on the driving factors such as geopolitical developments and supply concerns, as these could lead to shifts in market outlook and pricing dynamics.