Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.31
MA(20): $3.45
MACD: -0.062
Signal: -0.0495
Days since crossover: 7
Value: 43.0
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,391
Avg (20d): 138,638
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 12.8
%D: 28.35
ADX: 13.42
+DI: 21.52
-DI: 19.95
Value: -87.2
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.45
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices increased to 11.673 EUR/MWh (+0.039). JKM prices increased to 12.495 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.822 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-28
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-28
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-28
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.673 |
| JUL 25 | 12.352 |
| AUG 25 | 12.424 |
| SEP 25 | 12.577 |
| OCT 25 | 12.693 |
| NOV 25 | 12.872 |
| DEC 25 | 12.961 |
| JAN 26 | 12.992 |
| FEB 26 | 12.995 |
| MAR 26 | 12.815 |
| APR 26 | 11.960 |
| MAY 26 | 11.660 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.495 |
| AUG 25 | 12.580 |
| SEP 25 | 12.635 |
| OCT 25 | 12.675 |
| NOV 25 | 12.855 |
| DEC 25 | 13.120 |
| JAN 26 | 13.265 |
| FEB 26 | 13.250 |
| MAR 26 | 12.850 |
| APR 26 | 12.060 |
| MAY 26 | 11.835 |
| JUN 26 | 11.810 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-28 | $3.4 | $3.13 | $3.67 |
| 2025-05-29 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $3.68 |
| 2025-05-30 | $3.4 | $3.13 | $3.68 |
| 2025-05-31 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $3.68 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.4 | $3.13 | $3.67 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level stands at 2.86, while the resistance is at 3.34. Traders should be cautious of potential price movements as the ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.02%, with a range of 3.13 to 3.67. This indicates possible volatility in the short term, and traders should monitor for opportunities around these levels.
The fundamental balance is reported at 13.60 BCFD, showing a decrease of 2.40, indicating tighter supply conditions. Producers may want to consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies in response to the neutral market sentiment. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting may also impact crude oil pricing, so staying informed on output decisions is crucial.
With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers can expect stable supply conditions. However, the potential for cost fluctuations remains due to the bearish market sentiment. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against possible price increases in the near future.
The market appears to be influenced by several factors, including a moderately bearish technical outlook and a neutral news sentiment. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, while the weather patterns favor cooling demand, suggesting mixed signals for future pricing. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely, particularly the effects of OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical developments on market stability.