Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.0339
Signal: -0.0453
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 50.87
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 122,582
Avg (20d): 148,614
Ratio: 0.82
%K: 49.06
%D: 40.16
ADX: 12.79
+DI: 20.21
-DI: 16.93
Value: -50.94
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.638 EUR/MWh (-0.021). JKM prices decreased to 12.295 USD/MMBtu (-0.170). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.657 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-30
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-30
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-30
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.638 |
| JUL 25 | 11.803 |
| AUG 25 | 11.903 |
| SEP 25 | 12.067 |
| OCT 25 | 12.199 |
| NOV 25 | 12.381 |
| DEC 25 | 12.467 |
| JAN 26 | 12.496 |
| FEB 26 | 12.502 |
| MAR 26 | 12.330 |
| APR 26 | 11.571 |
| MAY 26 | 11.282 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.295 |
| AUG 25 | 12.090 |
| SEP 25 | 12.170 |
| OCT 25 | 12.235 |
| NOV 25 | 12.405 |
| DEC 25 | 12.710 |
| JAN 26 | 12.805 |
| FEB 26 | 12.790 |
| MAR 26 | 12.410 |
| APR 26 | 11.630 |
| MAY 26 | 11.420 |
| JUN 26 | 11.405 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-30 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.78 |
| 2025-05-31 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.78 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.79 |
| 2025-06-02 | $3.51 | $3.2 | $3.81 |
| 2025-06-03 | $3.48 | $3.17 | $3.78 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD, indicating a slight increase in supply. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34 while resistance is at 3.64. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 1.16% with a trading range between 3.18 and 3.78. Traders should be cautious of volatility but may find short-term opportunities around these key levels.
The neutral market sentiment, combined with a fundamental balance showing a supply increase, suggests careful planning in production strategies. Producers should consider hedging against potential price declines as the ML forecast indicates a downward trend. Additionally, the risk of fluctuating demand due to cooling weather patterns could impact production schedules, particularly in regions with low heating demand.
With the current neutral sentiment and a fundamental balance indicating increased supply, consumers may experience cost fluctuations in the near term. The cooling demand forecast suggests lower heating needs, which could stabilize prices. However, consumers should remain vigilant regarding procurement strategies, especially as the ML price forecast indicates a potential decline in pricing.
The market presents a neutral outlook shaped by a fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD and prevailing cooling demand. Key driving factors include the bearish sentiment in crude oil and the bullish sentiment in natural gas, particularly regarding infrastructure and demand dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impact on supply chains as sentiment shifts could lead to significant market outlook changes.