Energy Market Analysis Report

2025-05-31 22:10

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.45
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.34

MA(20): $3.46

Current Price is 3.45, 9 day MA 3.34, 20 day MA 3.46

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.035

Signal: -0.0455

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.46

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.46 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 180,662

Avg (20d): 151,518

Ratio: 1.19

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 47.04

%D: 39.49

Stochastic %K: 47.04, %D: 39.49. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.79

+DI: 20.21

-DI: 16.93

ADX: 12.79 (+DI: 20.21, -DI: 16.93). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -52.96

Williams %R: -52.96 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.79

Middle: 3.46

Lower: 3.13

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.79, Middle: 3.46, Lower: 3.13

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.8 106.1 99.1 98.4
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 6.7 5.7 5.7 4.93
Total Supply 112.5 111.8 104.9 103.43
Industrial Demand 22.6 22.4 21.9 21.7
Electric Power Demand 31.7 33.1 34.4 31.97
Residential & Commercial 13.4 12.9 10.0 10.87
LNG Exports 15.7 15.6 12.8 12.8
Mexico Exports 7.2 7.5 6.8 6.03
Pipeline Fuel 6.7 6.7 8.5 7.13
Total Demand 97.3 98.2 94.0 90.4
Supply/Demand Balance 15.2 13.6 10.9 13.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 10.5)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 1.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 21.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 1.5
Total HDD: 3.5
Total CDD: 26.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.5
Total HDD: 7.5
Total CDD: 62.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 142.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 21.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 138.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 6.0
Total CDD: 63.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.33
Daily: 0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly: 0.4 (0.4%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: -0.01 (-0.18%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.06%)

SP500

5911.69
Daily: -0.48 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 108.87 (1.88%)

VIX

18.57
Daily: -0.61 (-3.18%)
Weekly: -3.72 (-16.69%)

GOLD

3288.9
Daily: -28.2 (-0.85%)
Weekly: -74.7 (-2.22%)

COPPER

4.65
Daily: -0.0 (-0.02%)
Weekly: -0.15 (-3.2%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-05-27
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,470,148
Change: -27,736

Managed Money

-63,286
Change: -6,784
-4.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-8,711
Change: +5,241
-0.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,813
Change: +7,518
8.5% of OI

Other Reportables

-65,816
Change: -8,416
-4.5% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-05-27
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: +70,435

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 11.638 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.155 USD/MMBtu (-0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.517 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.638

+0.000

Front month: JUN 25

As of 2025-05-31

JKM Prices

12.155

-0.140

Front month: JUL 25

As of 2025-05-31

JKM-TTF Spread

0.517

4.44%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-05-31

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.6
12.1
11.7
11.2
10.8
11.64
12.15
JUN 25
11.39
11.71
JUL 25
11.52
11.77
AUG 25
11.66
11.87
SEP 25
11.80
12.04
OCT 25
12.00
12.34
NOV 25
12.10
12.44
DEC 25
12.13
12.41
JAN 26
12.13
12.02
FEB 26
11.96
11.35
MAR 26
11.21
11.14
APR 26
10.94
11.13
MAY 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
JUN 25 11.638
JUL 25 11.388
AUG 25 11.518
SEP 25 11.665
OCT 25 11.796
NOV 25 11.997
DEC 25 12.100
JAN 26 12.134
FEB 26 12.135
MAR 26 11.963
APR 26 11.213
MAY 26 10.935
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
JUL 25 12.155
AUG 25 11.715
SEP 25 11.770
OCT 25 11.870
NOV 25 12.040
DEC 25 12.335
JAN 26 12.435
FEB 26 12.410
MAR 26 12.020
APR 26 11.345
MAY 26 11.140
JUN 26 11.135

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.45
Closest Support: $3.34 3.19% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.64 5.51% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.86
0.236 $3.34 Support
0.382 $3.64 Resistance
0.5 $3.88
0.618 $4.12
0.786 $4.46
1.0 $4.9

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $5.46
1.618 $6.16
2.0 $6.94
2.618 $8.21

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.45
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-31 22:10:18
Next Trading Day: UP 0.06%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-31 $3.45 $3.16 $3.74
2025-06-01 $3.45 $3.16 $3.74
2025-06-02 $3.48 $3.18 $3.77
2025-06-03 $3.44 $3.15 $3.74
2025-06-04 $3.45 $3.16 $3.75

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2025-05-31), reaching $3.45.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-31 and 2025-06-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~17.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-31 22:10

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