Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.035
Signal: -0.0455
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 50.46
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 180,662
Avg (20d): 151,518
Ratio: 1.19
%K: 47.04
%D: 39.49
ADX: 12.79
+DI: 20.21
-DI: 16.93
Value: -52.96
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.638 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.155 USD/MMBtu (-0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.517 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-31
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-31
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-31
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.638 |
| JUL 25 | 11.388 |
| AUG 25 | 11.518 |
| SEP 25 | 11.665 |
| OCT 25 | 11.796 |
| NOV 25 | 11.997 |
| DEC 25 | 12.100 |
| JAN 26 | 12.134 |
| FEB 26 | 12.135 |
| MAR 26 | 11.963 |
| APR 26 | 11.213 |
| MAY 26 | 10.935 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.155 |
| AUG 25 | 11.715 |
| SEP 25 | 11.770 |
| OCT 25 | 11.870 |
| NOV 25 | 12.040 |
| DEC 25 | 12.335 |
| JAN 26 | 12.435 |
| FEB 26 | 12.410 |
| MAR 26 | 12.020 |
| APR 26 | 11.345 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.135 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-02 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-03 | $3.44 | $3.15 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-04 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.75 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The ML forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.06% in prices, with a projected range of 3.16 to 3.74. Traders should be cautious, as the neutral technical score signals potential volatility. Short-term opportunities may arise if prices approach resistance levels, but the overall market remains uncertain.
The fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD reflects a slight increase in supply, which may influence production planning. The neutral market sentiment suggests that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations. Additionally, the low heating demand forecast indicates that cooling demand will dominate, especially in the South and West regions, which may affect production schedules and resource allocation.
With a prevailing neutral sentiment in the market, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The cooling demand forecast suggests moderate energy usage, which may stabilize prices in the short term. However, the increased fundamental balance indicates a need for vigilance regarding supply reliability risks. Consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that account for possible price volatility.
The current market landscape is characterized by a neutral overall sentiment with a fundamental balance indicating a slight increase in supply. Cooling demand dominates across all regions, which may contribute to a stable pricing environment. Analysts should focus on the bearish sentiment in crude oil and the implications of increased natural gas demand as key driving factors. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for anticipating shifts in market dynamics.