Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.035
Signal: -0.0455
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 50.46
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 180,662
Avg (20d): 151,518
Ratio: 1.19
%K: 47.04
%D: 39.49
ADX: 12.79
+DI: 20.21
-DI: 16.93
Value: -52.96
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.638 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.155 USD/MMBtu (-0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.517 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-31
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-31
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-31
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.638 |
| JUL 25 | 11.388 |
| AUG 25 | 11.518 |
| SEP 25 | 11.665 |
| OCT 25 | 11.796 |
| NOV 25 | 11.997 |
| DEC 25 | 12.100 |
| JAN 26 | 12.134 |
| FEB 26 | 12.135 |
| MAR 26 | 11.963 |
| APR 26 | 11.213 |
| MAY 26 | 10.935 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.155 |
| AUG 25 | 11.715 |
| SEP 25 | 11.770 |
| OCT 25 | 11.870 |
| NOV 25 | 12.040 |
| DEC 25 | 12.335 |
| JAN 26 | 12.435 |
| FEB 26 | 12.410 |
| MAR 26 | 12.020 |
| APR 26 | 11.345 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.135 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-02 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-03 | $3.44 | $3.15 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-04 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.75 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. With the ML price forecast predicting a slight increase of 0.06%, traders should monitor for short-term opportunities, particularly around the support and resistance levels, while remaining cautious of volatility stemming from the cooling demand across regions.
The fundamental balance shows an increase to 15.20 BCFD, which could indicate a need for strategic adjustments in production planning. The neutral market sentiment reflects uncertainty, suggesting that producers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Furthermore, the news sentiment around supply and demand dynamics indicates a mixed outlook, with headlines impacting perceptions of market reliability.
With the forecast indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations, particularly in the summer months. The fundamental balance reflects an increase, which may stabilize supply but also indicates potential price pressures. It's advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies to lock in prices ahead of anticipated fluctuations.
The market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a balance of factors influencing both supply and demand. The strongest driving factors include the cooling demand dominating across regions and the fundamental balance reflecting a notable increase. Analysts should closely monitor these elements for shifts in outlook, as they could indicate changing dynamics in both the oil and gas sectors.