Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.47
MA(20): $3.48
MACD: 0.0301
Signal: -0.016
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 56.16
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,039
Avg (20d): 140,977
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 88.59
%D: 91.23
ADX: 14.82
+DI: 23.2
-DI: 14.45
Value: -11.41
Upper: 3.85
Middle: 3.48
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices increased to 11.930 EUR/MWh (+0.212). JKM prices increased to 12.330 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.400 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-04
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-04
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-04
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 11.930 |
| AUG 25 | 12.078 |
| SEP 25 | 12.228 |
| OCT 25 | 12.378 |
| NOV 25 | 12.572 |
| DEC 25 | 12.671 |
| JAN 26 | 12.716 |
| FEB 26 | 12.718 |
| MAR 26 | 12.533 |
| APR 26 | 11.684 |
| MAY 26 | 11.393 |
| JUN 26 | 11.304 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.330 |
| AUG 25 | 12.345 |
| SEP 25 | 12.390 |
| OCT 25 | 12.520 |
| NOV 25 | 12.675 |
| DEC 25 | 12.955 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.050 |
| MAR 26 | 12.625 |
| APR 26 | 11.775 |
| MAY 26 | 11.550 |
| JUN 26 | 11.535 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-05 | $3.7 | $3.4 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-06 | $3.72 | $3.42 | $4.02 |
| 2025-06-07 | $3.7 | $3.39 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | $3.7 | $3.39 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-09 | $3.7 | $3.4 | $4.0 |
The current market conditions present a neutral outlook, with a Fibonacci support at 3.52 and resistance at 3.72. The ML price forecast indicates a slight downward trend of 0.43%. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the market balances between these levels, allowing for short-term opportunities to capitalize on price fluctuations.
With a fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD showing a positive change, producers may consider adjusting production levels accordingly. The neutral sentiment in the market, coupled with geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices, suggests that hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate risks from price fluctuations and potential oversupply concerns.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the moderate cooling demand expected across regions, especially in the South and West. The neutral market sentiment indicates that while supply remains stable, procurement strategies should consider the possibility of price volatility in the near term.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, driven by a balance of supply and demand factors. The fundamental balance and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach, with geopolitical tensions and cooling demand being significant drivers of price movements. Analysts should monitor these factors closely for any potential shifts in market outlook.