Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.53
MA(20): $3.49
MACD: 0.0443
Signal: -0.0036
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 56.43
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,540
Avg (20d): 139,138
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 90.09
%D: 92.19
ADX: 15.32
+DI: 22.36
-DI: 14.35
Value: -9.91
Upper: 3.87
Middle: 3.49
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.910 EUR/MWh (-0.020). JKM prices increased to 12.370 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.460 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-05
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-05
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-05
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 11.910 |
| AUG 25 | 12.051 |
| SEP 25 | 12.196 |
| OCT 25 | 12.338 |
| NOV 25 | 12.502 |
| DEC 25 | 12.613 |
| JAN 26 | 12.659 |
| FEB 26 | 12.662 |
| MAR 26 | 12.464 |
| APR 26 | 11.632 |
| MAY 26 | 11.354 |
| JUN 26 | 11.280 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.370 |
| AUG 25 | 12.305 |
| SEP 25 | 12.345 |
| OCT 25 | 12.450 |
| NOV 25 | 12.580 |
| DEC 25 | 12.895 |
| JAN 26 | 12.990 |
| FEB 26 | 12.975 |
| MAR 26 | 12.535 |
| APR 26 | 11.725 |
| MAY 26 | 11.500 |
| JUN 26 | 11.500 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-06 | $3.7 | $3.4 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-07 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.98 |
| 2025-06-08 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.97 |
| 2025-06-09 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.97 |
| 2025-06-10 | $3.68 | $3.37 | $3.98 |
The current market data suggests a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.62 while resistance is at 3.8. Traders should monitor these levels closely.
The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.55%, with a trading range between 3.4 and 4.0. This could present short-term opportunities, especially if prices test the resistance level.
Overall, the risk factors appear moderate given the mixed signals from technical indicators and market sentiment. Traders should be prepared for potential volatility as market conditions evolve.
The fundamental balance stands at 16.20 BCFD with a change of +1.00. This indicates a slight increase in supply, which may affect pricing strategies. Producers need to evaluate their production planning accordingly.
The neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while demand is stable, significant fluctuations may occur. Companies should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price drops.
Recent headlines indicate positive sentiment regarding natural gas due to supply disruptions, which could provide leverage for pricing negotiations. Monitoring geopolitical developments is essential, as they could influence market dynamics.
The weather outlook indicates a cooling dominated scenario with low heating demand and moderate cooling demand expected across regions. This could lead to stable pricing for consumers in the short term.
However, with a neutral market sentiment and potential price volatility, consumers should be cautious about procurement strategies. Locking in prices might be beneficial, especially if forecasts suggest rising demand.
The increase in natural gas storage levels may provide some assurance regarding supply reliability, but consumers should remain vigilant about potential fluctuations in costs based on weather patterns and market dynamics.
The market presents a neutral outlook with a balance score of 16.20 BCFD. The convergence of risk factors and strategies suggests a complex landscape for both supply and demand.
Key driving factors include a positive sentiment towards natural gas due to supply disruptions and a bearish sentiment for crude oil amid oversupply concerns. Analysts should monitor these trends closely for potential shifts in market dynamics.
Overall, the market is influenced by a combination of weather forecasts, geopolitical concerns, and fundamental supply/demand changes, which could lead to strategic shifts in outlooks moving forward.